The unstable cauldron of contemporary Middle Eastern politics has been stirred further by yesterday's dreadful massacre of at least 60 tourists in Luxor, Egypt. Coming on top of the crisis over UN inspection teams in Iraq, the continuing conflict between Islamists and the Algerian government and the deep uncertainty surrounding the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, it is likely to strengthen western perceptions of a volatile region in which several of these issues reinforce one another in a cycle of instability. But it also serves as a reminder of the need for international engagement which goes beyond the management of successive Middle Eastern crises.
This is much the most atrocious attack to have occurred in Egypt since the current terrorist campaign by Islamic groups began in 1992. Their growth and influence there is a result of very particular circumstances, as is the case in other Middle Eastern states where such movements have attracted support. It is partly a protest against growing inequalities and injustices for which popular opinion holds the government responsible. It is also partly a result of the state's deliberate co-opting of conservative religious practices and values in pursuit of legitimacy, which has had a very considerable influence throughout Egyptian society in recent years. As a result it has become more difficult to defend secular policies; many liberal Egyptians espousing them have come under attack, not from Islamic terrorists but from conservative religious bodies mobilised by the government to counteract them.
The level of violence in Egypt has been qualitatively different to that in Algeria, with which, not surprisingly, this attack invites comparison. The very victims illustrate these differences. Some two million tourists visit the celebrated Luxor site every year, half the total number coming to Egypt. Tourism revenue is estimated at over three billion dollars. It depends on openness and accessibility, which this atrocity is specifically intended to break up in an effort to do maximum damage to Egypt's reputation. The attack will redouble the state's effort to eliminate such a threat by military repression and to reassure potential tourists that they will be safe to come. Unfortunately, this will be an uphill task.
The Egyptian government is exposed to regional trends, which affect its own legitimacy. It has distanced itself from the faltering Middle East peace process and joined other Arab states in resisting pressure from the United States to use force against Iraq's treatment of United Nations inspection teams. This atrocity will give its government pause in any regional effort to re-engage Iran, which is still suspected of encouraging Islamist movements throughout the Middle East.
European states should pay close attention to regional trends and redouble their efforts to engage its governments. The alternative to engagement and dialogue will be more repression and barriers between Europe and these important neighbours. The Egyptian government deserves support in its efforts to revive its tourist industry after such an act of wanton cruelty. It will be equally important that European governments and peoples better understand the conditions which gave rise to it and not turn away in shock or disgust from this important region.