The political controversies generated by the leaking of documents from the Department of Foreign Affairs in connection with the presidential candidature of Prof Mary McAleese, and her tacit endorsement by the president of Sinn Fein, Mr Gerry Adams, have not damaged her election prospects, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. Most recent figures would suggest that, following the elimination of Mr Derek Nally, Ms Adi Roche and Mrs Rosemary Scallon (Dana), Ms McAleese will be elected as successor to President Mary Robinson, next week.
Support for Ms McAleese, the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats candidate, has grown by five percentage points in the past eleven days. This has been matched by a similar improvement in the position of Fine Gael's candidate, Ms Mary Banotti. But the failure of Ms Banotti to close the gap which has separated her from Ms McAleese from an early point in the election campaign, allied to an evenly balanced transfer of second, third and fourth preference votes, has left Ms McAleese in a commanding position. It would take a political event of major proportions to alter public voting intentions at this stage of the campaign.
The continuing slide in support for Ms Roche, the Labour Party/Democratic Left/Green Party candidate, which may eventually lead to her elimination in advance of Dana, is likely to come as a considerable shock to her campaign workers. Activists involved in promoting Mr Nally and Dana also have cause to feel disappointment. But, given the overwhelming media attention that has centred on Ms McAleese because of the "dirty tricks" campaign against her along with party-political in-fighting involving Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the three lower-placed candidates were always battling against the tide.
The controversy surrounding Ms McAleese, arising largely from "leaked" documents and the nature of her nationalist views, has not damaged her ability to attract preferential votes from across party lines. But the party-political elements have caused a surge of support to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael candidates. Within Fianna Fail, backing for Ms McAleese has risen from 50 to 58 per cent, while Ms Banotti has done slightly better, pushing up her party support level from 50 to 61 per cent. The same trend, marginally favouring Ms Banotti, is also evident in the number of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael voters prepared to cross party lines with their first preference votes.
Reaction to the politicisation of the presidential campaign would appear to have been extremely negative. All party leaders have suffered significant falls in their personal satisfaction ratings since late September, before Mr Ray Burke resigned as Minister for Foreign Affairs. The handling of that affair is likely to have impacted negatively on the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and on the Tanaiste, Ms Harney. Other political leaders may also have suffered from the generally negative reaction of the public. But the precipitous drop from 60 to 43 per cent in the current satisfaction rating of the Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, is almost certainly linked to party in-fighting over the presidential election. The public does not appear to have been impressed by recent events.