Media spoil Quinn's chance to bedazzle with Budget surprises

IT was a week of phoney war.

IT was a week of phoney war.

A great deal was happening but without much focus. In particular we had a surfeit of speculation on Ruairi Quinn's Budget of next Wednesday.

All Drapier can say is God be with the days when we waited with bated breath to see if the old reliables, cigarettes, the pint and petrol, would have a few pence slapped on and if there would be a shilling or two for the widows and pensioners, and that more or less would be that.

Things are not so simple today. Indeed you nearly need a degree in higher economics to grasp the complexity of much that has been written about the options open to Ruairi Quinn. Drapier has always shared Charlie Haughey's view of economists as purveyors of a dismal science and feels we all pay too much attention to them. When have you ever heard of any of them ever admitting to getting it wrong? And when they talk of the "real" world it would nearly make a cat laugh.

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But enough of that. Drapier wills' make only two predictions about Wednesday's budget. It will not be the "giveaway" Budget, a prelude to a quick run to the country as our friends in Middle Abbey Street keep predicting. Quinn is far too sophisticated for that, as indeed is the electorate, and while there will be good news it will be thinly spread, but good news nonetheless, though certainly no basis on which to dash to the country.

Drapier's second prediction is simple enough. The speech will be written in clear elegant English with the turgid style of the economists and the bureaucrats pushed to the margins.

In this regard Quinn is his own man, and a welcome change it makes.

So Drapier says: enjoy Wednesday if you can. He won't. The sense of drama and occasion that used to be Budget day is no more. There will be media saturation with the paid spokespersons of every group in the country whingeing on air as to why their rightful demands were not met and we will have to endure the analysing of every paragraph, phrase and subsection of Quinn's script by the assembled armies of tax specialists, trade unionists, accountants, the man from Tallaght, the farmer from Mullinahone, the social worker and the lot.

DRAPIER knows it is important, but quite honestly the level of overkill has robbed Budget day of any drama or any element of surprise.

On to other matters, and in case you missed it Drapier wants to compliment David Hanly for a magic moment on Morning Ireland during the week. David had pressed Raymond O'Malley, one of the head honchos in the Irish Farmers' Association, into admitting that on the Egyptian cattle crisis John Bruton, Dick Spring and Ivan Yates were doing a good job. Hanly paused. This truly was a historic moment, a moment he said to be preserved for the archives.

Drapier hears in fact that the IFA did get a roasting after its excesses last year, especially its virtually non stop attacks on all Ministers on every issue, so maybe we are about to see John Donnelly launching the kinder gentler face of the IFA.

Drapier wouldn't bet on it, but it is interesting to see a grudging realisation from the IFA that consumers do matter and that some of its myopic antics in the past have done it great damage. Not that the IFA, like the economists, ever admits to being wrong.

MEANWHILE the hepatitis C tribunal motors on. Drapier has to award full marks to Judge Tom Finlay for the way he is going about his work - no showmanship, no theatricals, just a businesslike approach, a model of what a tribunal should be and a reminder of what a useful device a public tribunal can be in winkling out elusive truth.

Already a great deal has been discovered which might never otherwise have seen the light of day, and Michael Noonan at least must be relieved to see the picture rolling back from him. The truth is he inherited a poisoned chalice and it will now be some of his predecessors and some of their officials who will be sleeping less easily these nights.

On the subject of tribunals, Drapier notes the general sense across all parties in the House that no obstacle should be placed in the way of Judge Gerard Buchanan in getting to the full truth behind the Dunnes story.

Michael Bell's committee is a small tight committee and with Des O'Malley and Jim O'Keeffe among its members there will be no holding back, but many people here feel that even with the new powers of compellability it may not be adequate to the task, and we may yet need a public inquiry. The Finlay tribunal at least has shown that such can be effective and need not cost the Earth.

Drapier suspends his judgment on this one for the moment, but he urges his colleagues on Bell's committee not to waste time, and if they feel they don't have the capacity to get to the heart of the matter to say so, and let's have a public tribunal. Drapier has confidence in the calibre and judgment of the committee to call this one right.

MEANWHILE this week John Bruton made a strong attempt to change the atmosphere in which the nurses dispute is taking place. No government wants to fight with the nurses, but the problem this time is compounded by the confusion surrounding the way the nurses are making their case.

Drapier feels at this stage that the nurses' need to make a strong statement is almost as important as the specific grievances, and if a settlement is to be reached it will need more coherence on their side. Billy Attley's suggestion of a commission is a helpful one, but not one that has cut much ice with the nurses so far.

Sadly this week Drapier has bad news for David Andrews, Mary O'Rourke, Albert Reynolds and any other presidential aspirant around the place, and remember you heard it first from Drapier.

You can take it Mary Robinson will run for a second term and expect the announcement shortly. The presidential mind is all but made up and the earlier doubts about a second term have melted away. Don't ask Drapier how he knows - he just does, and as his readers know by now he doesn't often stick his neck out.

Finally this week Drapier wants to send good wishes to three of his favourite people in here who are currently in hospital - Senator Tom Fitzgerald, Jim Mitchell and from the non elected side of the House, Sean Duignan. Drapier and all his colleagues wish all three a speedy recovery.