Mexico's highest electoral court has ruled that the conservative candidate Felipe Calderón won the July 2nd presidential election fairly, despite its very close result.
But the left-wing leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador refuses to accept its verdict and hints at a continuing campaign of resistance through a "parallel government". This leaves Mexican politics in a precarious impasse which needs badly to be resolved.
Most voters fear social violence and an economic crisis in the country if this is not done, according to one opinion poll. It found that although 20 per cent of Mexicans supported Mr López Obrador's methods, 37 per cent believe whatever fraud took place is not enough to justify running the election again. The electoral commission found the result was reliable, based on a 9 per cent recount weighted to take account of areas where fraud was allegedly most at play. Ill-advisedly, it refused a total recount of the 41 million votes cast. This would have been the best way to affirm the legitimacy of the electoral process and the young democracy on which it is based. It has only recently emerged from a long period of authoritarian rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party.
The conflict has exposed deep divisions and inequalities in Mexican society. Many had expected Mr López Obrador to win the election relatively easily, based on his record as a former mayor of Mexico City and his success in mobilising poorer voters in the rural south of the country and major urban areas. Such a victory would have confirmed a recent pattern of left-wing victories in Latin America, bringing them to the very door of the United States. But Mr Calderón fought an effective and highly focused campaign, concentrating on market reforms to change Mexico's notorious crony capitalism and the dangers of a left-wing presidency for its economic and political development. The result shows he struck a real chord with voters, irrespective of whether it is accepted as valid.
Mr Calderón's most pressing task now is to address the deep inequalities of Mexican society and show he can govern the country fairly and effectively. Nearly half of its 106 million population live in poverty and resent the growing gap between rich and poor. He acknowledges this priority in interviews and has demonstrated a resolve which could be brought to bear. The immediate political need is to encourage Mr López Obrador and his supporters to back off their campaign of opposition and resistance to the result - and its growing unpopularity - without any resort to violence and to consolidate their powerful position in local and national assemblies.