The Government has bowed to political pressure and authorised the holding of the Meath and Kildare North by-elections on March 11th. They should be fascinating contests and help to establish the mid-term popularity of the Coalition parties, along with the potential of Fine Gael and the Labour Party to form the nucleus of an alternative government.
The by-elections will also measure the prospects of Sinn Féin, the Green Party and Independent candidates in the context of specific local issues.
The reluctance of the Government to engage in electoral contests at this time was understandable, given the difficulties Fianna Fáil experienced in selecting suitable candidates.
In addition, a number of national and local issues may impact on its popularity in the short term. There are continuing industrial relations difficulties within the ESB and a disruption of hospital services by consultants is planned to begin on March 14th.
Voters are also concerned about commuting, childcare and education issues, the construction of an incinerator and the development of the M3 motorway.
It has been 23 years since a government won a by-election. On that occasion, Fianna Fáil triumphed in Galway East. In spite of the tendency of citizens to deliver anti-government responses in such contests, however, Fianna Fáil is well placed in both Meath and Kildare North, having taken more than 43 per cent of the vote in the general election of 2002. Its closest challengers were Fine Gael in Meath and Labour in Kildare North. Since then, Fianna Fáil's vote has fallen sharply in the local elections. But Fine Gael will have a battle on its hands to retain John Bruton's seat in Meath, while the threat to Charlie McCreevy's seat in Kildare North will come from Labour and an Independent candidate.
The results of the by-elections will not directly threaten the survival of the Government because it has sufficient Dáil support to continue in office until 2007. But poor performances by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats could affect the cohesion and morale of the Coalition parties and generate the kinds of tension that emerged in the aftermath of the local and European elections in 2004.
Fine Gael must win at least one of the seats if Mr Enda Kenny is to build on the progress made in the local elections and present himself to the broader electorate as a credible leader of the next government. The authority and political judgment of Mr Pat Rabbitte will also be on the line as his critics assess the impact on Labour of his alliance with Fine Gael. The performance of Sinn Féin will be scrutinised in the context of continuing paramilitary and criminal activity by the IRA. And the Progressive Democrats and the Green Party will be hoping for tendrils of growth.
In spite of their limited relevance at this time, the by-elections may produce harbingers of things to come.