A tone of desperation underlies protestations from the camp of the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, that he will not go quietly in the forthcoming Cabinet reshuffle. This is the second time Mr Smith has directly challenged the authority of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern. Last year, in advance of the local elections, he publicly criticised Government policy on hospital reform before grudgingly falling into line.
Now he has let it be known that he will resist any attempt to sack him. The Minister is whistling past the graveyard. He knows that appointments to Cabinet are at the absolute discretion of Mr Ahern. But, given the Taoiseach's record of avoiding confrontation, Mr Smith's supporters may calculate that this approach is the only one likely to safeguard his position.
The upset and concern of the Minister is easy to understand. But Mr Ahern cannot afford to be influenced by such bluster and half-voiced threats as he seeks to reshape and reinvigorate the Government and protect his own political career. Mr Smith was extremely fortunate to be retained in the 2002 Cabinet. Since then, his performance has lacked the sparkle and imagination that would guarantee his retention.
In preparation for the reshuffle, the Taoiseach has already overridden the wishes of the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, and nominated him to the European Commission. Last week, he accepted the resignation of the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, with alacrity. And he is clearly anxious that Mr Smith should follow suit so that he will enjoy maximum flexibility in reshaping the Government. Other senior Ministers, who promised much but failed to deliver, may also be demoted or given other responsibilities. Furthermore, the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, has signalled her desire to leave the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment.
In the aftermath of a poor showing by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats in the local and European elections last June, the Government decided to target five or six specific areas where demonstrable progress would help to renew public confidence in the Coalition. Rapidly improving public finances will allow for an increase in spending in areas such as health, education and local employment schemes. And the forthcoming Budget should permit progress to be made in removing people on the minimum wage from the tax net while index-linking bands and excluding average industrial earners from the top rate of tax. The Taoiseach has a fighting chance of reversing the political fortunes of his party. But before that can happen, he must show vigour and determination in reshaping the Government.