Ministers meet at Government Buildings today to consider the outlook for a new Dáil session and to assess their influence on the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, in advance of a Cabinet reshuffle. It will not be a relaxed gathering, as Mr Michael Smith continues to protest his determination to remain at the Department of Defence and other Ministers are under pressure because of poor personal performances.
The Taoiseach has already encouraged Mr Charlie McCreevy and Mr Joe Walsh to leave the Cabinet as he prepares to reshape his Government. And he will have to maintain this uncharacteristically ruthless approach if he hopes to retain power after the next general election.
Should last June's voting pattern be replicated in a general election, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats could lose up to 20 Dáil seats. And while such electoral contests are not directly comparable, the potential for political ruin is concentrating minds within the Coalition parties. The president of the Progressive Democrats, Mr Michael McDowell, has warned members to plan for an early general election. And Fianna Fáil is engaging in organisational change, while preparing for next week's comprehensive debate by Oireachtas members on the party's future direction.
The truth of the matter is that, after seven years of unbroken economic growth in government, many Ministers have become arrogant, lazy and self-satisfied. A contraction in the Government's finances last year resulted in cutbacks that impacted, in particular, on the less-well-off. Some Ministers engaged in departmental "turf wars" rather than adopting coherent and unified approaches to complex social issues. Others simply marked time. The development of policy became the exception, rather than the norm. If this Cabinet reshuffle is to be effective, the Taoiseach will have to ensure that Ministers are committed not just to innovation, but to coherent, joined-up government.
In preparing to adopt a more generous and caring image, some important decisions have already been taken. The outgoing Minister for Finance confirmed, as the second phase of the national wage agreement moves towards formal ratification today, that employees can expect increases in their take-home pay as a result of the December Budget. Elsewhere, commitments have been given to increase spending on health and education.
In spite of the setback suffered by the Government parties in June, the economic climate remains positive, with growth of up to 5 per cent anticipated for the years ahead. Maturing SSIA investments in 2006/2007 should provide a feel-good factor coinciding with the timing of the general election. There are real opportunities for recovery.
But Fianna Fáil must bring clarity and conviction to the policies it pursues, especially in relation to the commercial semi-State sector, to the introduction of competition and to health issues. For the first time since July, Ministers of both parties will have their say. The imperative is that they give this Government a sense of direction.