News that the population of the State, at 4.05 million, has topped four million people for the first time since the 1871 census of population, when the population of the 26 counties was 4.04 million, shows how much Ireland is changing.
Immigration and birth rates are both up, and make a roughly equal contribution to the increase in population, according to the latest Quarterly National Household Survey estimates.
The four million figure is a significant milestone, given the deeply troubled demographic history of this country since the first census of population in 1841 recorded it at 8.2 million. This figure is estimated to have increased to 8.5 million by 1845, when the Great Famine first struck. At least one million people died in it over the next three years and nearly as many emigrated, so that the 1851 census recorded the total population at 6.5 million. It continued to decline in the 26 counties until the 1960s, mainly as a result of emigration.
An indication of the pessimism which this trend engrained in the Irish psyche is that the Commission on Emigration estimated in the mid-1950s that the State's population would be 2.5 million by 1985. In fact it was 3.5 million - and has continued to increase since then.
Yesterday's figure, together with the estimated 1.7 million population of Northern Ireland, brings that of the island of Ireland to 6.7 million. What, one wonders, will it be in 2034? A realistic estimate would now have to build on the assumption that the catch-up economic and population growth since 1985 will be sustained in coming decades.
Immigration has been a crucial factor increasing population over the recent years of rising prosperity. Yesterday's statistics reveal the important contribution made by returning Irish emigrants, who made up 34 per cent of last year's population increase. Immigrants from outside the EU-15 and the US account for most of the balance, predominantly from China and central and eastern Europe. These figures confirm the central economic role played by immigrants and the need for Irish society to adjust fully to these new realities.
Birth rates are also up after a period of decline, which may signal a welcome new trend arising from greater confidence about the future. A great deal depends on employment prospects. Yesterday's figures show a more healthy picture, with an increase of 42,800, or 2.4 per cent, in the labour force, bringing it to 1,920,300, or 60 per cent of all those aged over 15. These too are among the best recorded. 84,200 people are unemployed, 4.6 per cent of the labour force, but only 26,300 on a long term basis.