The rise in the number of persons out of work, as reflected in the November live register figures, will not have come as a surprise to the Coalition Government. The downturn in the world economy made it inevitable that jobs would be lost. But the speed at which redundancies have occurred is startling. And the fact that young males, under the age of 25, are predominantly affected must be a cause for concern.
The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, has already responded to this trend by making special provision in last Wednesday's Budget for the short-term unemployed. Social welfare payments to this category went up by £9.50 a week, compared to an increase of £8 for the long-term unemployed. Both categories now receive £93.56 a week. During the past twelve months, the number of people on the live register has risen by 10,000 and the extra cost to the Exchequer will be in the region of £40 million. The main factor giving rise to the monthly increase is the temporary lay-off of workers in the manufacturing, textile and technology sectors.
Since last February, the number on the live register - seasonally adjusted - has edged upwards from a twenty-year low of 137,500 to a current level of 154,100. But 75 per cent of that increase has occurred in the past two months and there is no sign that the trend is slackening. More than half of those registering are males under the age of 25. And while the number of long-term unemployed, year on year, continues to decline, the monthly live register figures show an increase in all categories of beneficiaries.
Seasonally adjusted, the standardised unemployment rate now stands at 4.1 per cent. And the Government expects the number of people out of work to grow by 11,000 to 155,000 in the coming year. But it is not all doom and gloom. The economy will continue to grow in 2002, even if more slowly than heretofore. And employment is projected to rise by about 24,000, or 1.4 per cent, to historically high levels. But next year's projected employment growth will be half of that achieved this year and less than one-third of that secured in 2000.