Between the political reality and the image, the idea and the programmatic commitment, there may be a great gulf in modern electoral campaigning. It is a truth of which the British Labour Party leader, Mr Tony Blair, is acutely aware. His policy document The Road to the Manifesto, presented to the media yesterday, is a masterpiece of image and commitment, a draft statement of New Labour's modernising approach to power. The critical test to which it must be subjected is one of intellectual and political memorability - does it contain sufficient in the way of difference to convince voters that the image and the political reality will eventually be matched?
Mr Blair certainly convinces when he argues that New Labour differs radically from the older variety. Britain and the world have moved on. He has now come to the vanguard of social democratic thinking and is beginning to set the pace for his sister parties as they struggle to come to grips with these changes. He also effectively differentiates his party from the Conservatives, at least in terms of image and emphasis. Same old Tories versus New Labour - the slogan rings true after seventeen years of Conservative rule, characterised lately by many signs of terminal decline. And it is not at all adequately countered by the alternative Conservative slogan `New Labour, New Dangers', given Mr Blair's palpable efforts to distinguish his policy and leadership style from that of his predecessors.
But there is a hall of mirrors quality about their engagement. This is exacerbated by Mr Blair's determination not to give the sharks of the Tory press any hostages to fortune in the matter of concrete commitments which could rebound on him in the lengthy election campaign this document opens up. His firm rejection of a tax and spend image is fully reflected in the cautious and limited commitments on education, crime and health outlined yesterday, which will be circulated in summary form to voters and will be the subject of a Labour Party referendum. Mr Blair has moved towards a plebiscitory model of politics in proposing referendums on several matters of principle - including Scottish and Welsh devolution, which, significantly, do not figure prominently in yesterday's priorities.
Combined with a marked assertion of his personal authority and complaints that he has not consulted key party personnel, it is clear that Mr Blair is setting the scene for a decisive confrontation with any remaining Labour dissidents. There is little stomach among them for a confrontation with him; but he might be well advised not to store up resentment that could return to dog a Labour administration.
It is easier to discern the political reality of a Labour government in Mr Blair's medium term objectives than from the sound bite formulations on offer yesterday. If he serious about a high wage, high skill, high technology, devolved economy and polity in Britain, with a role at the heart of Europe and relying on economic growth to fund reforms, this is relatively good news from an Irish point of view. It would need at least two parliamentary terms to deliver politically, probably in coalition and against the background of extensive constitutional change. It must be hoped that Mr Blair's determination extends to that longer term vision of change after the election has been won.