IN HIS final tour of Europe before leaving office, US president George Bush yesterday completed his last summit with European Union leaders in Brdo, Slovenia before travelling to Berlin to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel. He will then go to Rome, Paris and London before finishing up in Belfast on Monday, where he will salute the Belfast Agreement and the US role in achieving it.
In Brdo, Mr Bush acknowledged that while the US remains popular with Europeans, the same may not be said about its president. The absence of plans for public protest on this visit signifies the Bush era is near its end and a fresh chapter is about to open under a new president next year. But, as EU ambassador to the US John Bruton pointed out in an interview with this newspaper, Mr Bush is not necessarily a lame duck on climate change or the Middle East peace process.
On both counts he could make a difference before leaving office and is keen to do so because his record is at stake. Mr Bush said yesterday he thinks there will be a US-EU agreement on climate change by December, implying he is prepared to move on it. On the Middle East there was a joint commitment at yesterday’s summit to pave the way for an independent Palestinian state, including a welcome for the Arab League’s initiative. Further progress depends crucially on the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships, but both the EU and the US must maintain their independent pressure on them to deal with each other.
Iran loomed larger in yesterday’s discussions. There was agreement to increase pressure on Iran to comply with its international obligations on nuclear enrichment and weapons, especially through increased measures against its banking system. Reports yesterday indicated Iranian banks are withdrawing funds from Europe. Mr Bush emphasised the need for stronger diplomacy; he will find little or no European support for military action against Iran on this trip, but a determination to bring these prolonged negotiations to a peaceful conclusion.
European governments are now concentrating on the implications of a victory for Barack Obama or John McCain next November. The two have substantially different foreign policy programmes on Iraq, energy and economic issues. But inevitably there will also be substantial continuity whoever is elected, because US interests in many spheres will not change. Values, too, may show as much continuity. As a result, Mr Bush’s successor will have to find a way to manage what amounts to a growing transatlantic gulf.