Carefully designed opinion surveys have an important role to play in helping political leaders formulate policy and the general public to understand the issues at stake. A good example is the poll published last week on attitudes towards the Bush administration's policies in four major European states and in the United States. It finds clear evidence that the European public disapproves of major elements of Mr Bush's foreign policy, consider it concerned entirely with US interests and based on much less understanding than that of previous presidents.
Any tendency in the administration to assume that such attitudes are more typical of European policy elites than the general public, must be dispelled by these findings. They are especially hostile to Mr Bush's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and his proposed missile defence system, somewhat less so on his support of the death penalty. Interestingly, the survey does not find respondents in Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom believe the basic interests of Europe and the US have grown further apart. Most think they have stayed the same or grown closer. Substantial majorities favour Mr Bush's decision to keep US troops in Bosnia and Kosovo and his support for free trade. But there is scarcely any difference in the level of confidence extended to him compared to that of President Putin of Russia.
This is dramatic confirmation that US diplomacy faces a real problem in getting Europeans to support its new priorities. Most are convinced President Bush makes decisions based entirely on US interests. Among the minority who believe Europe and the US are growing apart, four factors are considered important: reduced need for security co-operation after the end of the Cold War; the European Union's growing power; resentment of US multinationals; and increasingly different social and cultural values.
That there is ample opportunity for the administration to modify European attitudes is suggested by the finding that many people have not yet made up their minds on Mr Bush's policies and by the clear substratum of positive attitudes towards the US. They realise it may well be too soon to make categorical judgments. But on the evidence of this authoritative poll, such initiatives would have to be based on a real willingness to take European interests into account and a genuine commitment to multilateral methods. For European politicians, the affirmation of clearly expressed interests and values that conflict with those of the US will increasingly be a test of their electoral legitimacy. This is the road towards a more balanced transatlantic relationship. The Bush administration has a strategic choice to make in how it is handled.