IT IS an understatement to say that Brian Cowen has been unlucky since he assumed the leadership of Fianna Fáil and Taoiseach of this tripartite Coalition a mere nine months ago. The long goodbye to his predecessor, Bertie Ahern, deflected the attention of the new Government and plunged new Ministers, unprepared, into a disastrous campaign on the Lisbon Treaty referendum.
Then came the precipitous fall in tax receipts as a backdrop to a disastrous October Budget. This led to further disastrous fall-out, energising the over-70s as a political force and causing many other interest groups to seek, and gain, U-turns. The Budget was followed by extraordinary banking problems as one gilded international financial institution after another – like Lehman Brothers – went to the wall. The Government was caught in the whirlwind of banking crises around the world and, eventually, had to address the stability of the banks here.
Mr Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan appeared to deal with this serious new issue with a lack of certainty: firstly, there was the guarantee, then the recapitalisation and, finally, the Nationalisation Bill introduced in the Dáil last week. All of these unprecedented developments have created anxiety and controversy. They weren’t helped politically by the Seán FitzPatrick debacle at Anglo Irish Bank. It has done more than any other single action to undermine the authority of the Taoiseach and his Government, the regulatory system and the confidence of consumers in the political system.
The public is becoming acclimatised now to a series of unprecedented events in a new economic world order. The recession is the conversation of the dinner table. And, in this environment, the Draft Framework for a Pact for Stabilisation, Social Solidarity and Economic Renewal, the initial outcome of the secret negotiations with the social partners over the last 10 days or so, is reaching the final stages of negotiation. It is regrettable that the whole Dáil is not engaged in this process.
But, maybe, just maybe, the Taoiseach has got it right. Maybe he had a grand plan all along while he appeared to stumble from one crisis to another, to lose control, and to create the impression among supporters and detractors alike that in the worst, the most uncertain, the most unstable days in living memory, there was no one there to lead the ship of State. Maybe Brian Cowen had a vision and, maybe, he had not.
All will be revealed on Tuesday when the national recovery plan for the future of this State – indeed, some would say its economic survival – will be published. It will mark a watershed for Mr Cowen and the future of his leadership. If he can publish a plan which will produce €2 billion in real cuts in 2009, greater cuts in further years, and bring the social partners along with him, it will be a significant achievement. But, in this crisis, he must ensure that the lower-paid and least privileged are protected while those bearing the tax-burden, who take the risks and generate the employment, don’t pay an unfair share that may undermine their enterprise and innovation.