Mr Brian Cowen, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, goes to the Middle East this week in another bid to get negotiations on a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians going again. He will be representing the European Union as well as Ireland, and travels with the goodwill of the Palestinian side, as expressed last week in Dublin by Mr Nabil Sha'ath, Mr Yasser Arafat's representative, who told him the EU is their "ally of choice". Mr Cowen says correctly that inaction on the conflict is "simply not an option" during Ireland's EU Presidency.
The Israeli government is not as enthusiastic either about Ireland's position or the role of the EU in mediating or resolving the conflict. But it has to take full account of the common European view that it is urgent to get the negotiations going again. They cannot be allowed to founder this year as the United States has a presidential election. The other parties to the internationally- agreed quartet road map for a settlement, Russia and the United Nations, are not in as strong a position as the EU to maintain the pressure, in association with the US.
The Israeli prime minister, Mr Sharon, says his government will go ahead with plans to withdraw unilaterally from parts of the occupied West Bank if the Palestinians do not control violent resistance. The fence/wall being built by the Israelis will continue, he says. His policy has been attacked by the quartet as a means of avoiding Israel's obligations under the road map.
A new factor is now coming rapidly into play. More far-seeing Israelis have been warning that if a settlement is not reached soon demographic pressures will begin to threaten the very fabric of the Jewish state. The Palestinian population in the occupied territories and in Israel is growing much faster than the Jewish one, partly because Jewish immigration to Israel has dried up after one million Russian Jews went there over the last 12 years.
As a result there are increasing pressures for a two-state solution to the conflict, since within a decade Jews would become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, ruling over a Palestinian majority. In a significant statement last week the Palestinian prime minister, Mr Ahmed Korei, warned that if Mr Sharon persists with his unilateral plan the only option left for the Palestinians would be to go for a one-state solution in which Palestinians would demand equal rights with Israelis.
That would be an historic sea-change, recalling the transition from apartheid to democracy in South Africa. Now that it is being so openly discussed there is likely to be renewed pressure on Mr Sharon to reopen negotiations. In that case Mr Cowen's visit is timely. He will be in an important position to gauge the prospect of getting talks going again, involving reciprocal moves by both sides to build confidence in the process. It is very much to be hoped that progress can be made, since this conflict is the source of so much instability directly affecting the EU.