Much speculation has been generated by yesterday's announcement by the president of the European Parliament, Mr Pat Cox, that he will not be a candidate in the forthcoming election in Munster. He has served the European Parliament and his country with honour and distinction.
But a political realist will know that his self-effacement in the manner of his stepping down places him on the next step of his career path. Mr Cox seeks preferment as Ireland's nominee to the next European Commission - with the realistic possibility that he might be the least offensive President of the European Commission to the other member states. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has indicated, positively, that he will receive the full backing of the Government in such circumstances.
Mr Cox has worn his green jersey well while on the European stage. As an Independent MEP, he became the first Irish person to be elected President of the European Parliament. This was a particularly noteworthy achievement because the Liberal Democratic and Reform Group, which he heads, is one of the smaller political groups there. During his two-year tenure, he expanded the role of President, acting as an ambassador to the new member-states, vividly communicating the role and importance of the Parliament and addressing the opening sessions of European Council meetings.
The Taoiseach is perfectly placed, as current President of the EU, to establish the level of support for Mr Cox as a presidential candidate. He is particularly popular with the governments of the 10 new member-states because of the encouragement he offered to their peoples during the transition period.
Mr Ahern will visit EU capitals during the coming months to discuss the terms of the proposed EU Constitution. And he will be in a position to assess the support for the candidature of Mr Cox. The job will be filled by agreement amongst member-states in June. There will be stiff competition for it.
The appointment of Mr Cox would have certain knock-on effects for the current Irish Commissioner, Mr David Byrne, and the scale of the Cabinet reshuffle in the autumn. So the odds on Mr Cox securing the top Brussels job lengthen.
In his valedictory address yesterday Mr Cox spoke of Europe being the cause of his political life. He said that he would continue to serve that cause in any way he could. As a job application, it was pretty straightforward. And in spite of the odds stacked against him, including his lack of executive experience, Mr Cox has proved himself a formidable candidate in the past.