Is another African tyrant about to tumble? The protests in Nairobi over the last two weeks suggest that the rule of President Daniel arap Moi might be coming to an end. Mr Moi though, is not hankering for retirement and is prepared to take whatever measures are necessary to postpone it. He is a wily, 73year old who has ruled Kenya for 19 years; anyone gambling on his downfall would still get generous odds.
Having enjoyed one-party rule for the first fourteen years of his presidency, Mr Moi reluctantly agreed to multi-party elections in 1992 - the donor nations threatened to withhold aid if he refused. Mr Moi, however, through a combination of new and old legislation promptly ensured that the opposition parties didn't stand a chance; he got re-elected and his KANU party got a solid majority in parliament. New elections are due in a few months time and the opposition parties are determined that the unfair laws be repealed first. Mr Moi insisted there was no time and the elections must go ahead.
The eclipse of Mr Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire emboldened Kenya's opposition to organise demonstrations, an activity which Mr Moi considers unforgivable. Hence the police were sent in, backed up by the dreaded paramilitary General Service Unit - the kind of outfit that no self-respecting tyrant can go without. Nine demonstrators were killed, innocent bystanders were beaten (and simultaneously robbed) by police. Nairobi's All Saints Anglican cathedral experienced a tear-gas attack by police who then mercilessly beat the Reverend Timothy Njoya, the moderator of the Presbyterian Church of East Africa. Such is the depths to which Kenya's ruler has sunk.
Mr Moi clearly felt that - as in 1990 - sufficient brutality would crush dissent. This time however, the opposition did not give up. Realising that his brutality was cementing the opposition, Mr Moi decided to change tactics. On Thursday, he announced that parliament would repeal or amend eleven controversial laws in time for the election and that a commission would be set up to review the constitution. It is, as Mr Kenneth Matiba, leader of the opposition Ford Asili party, observed yesterday, a blatant attempt to divide the opposition.
And it might just succeed. The opposition parties at the moment are acting in unison, supported by the churches and human rights groups. But most opposition parties are tribal-based and there is no agreement on who should take Mr Moi's place, if he goes. Kenya badly needs a unifying opposition leader which the country can rally round. Kenyans can only suffer if they get another five years of Mr Moi.