Will it be third time lucky for President Yeltsin? Today, the Russian lower house of parliament, the Duma, will vote for the third time in a matter of weeks on Mr Yeltsin's candidate for the post of prime minister. Mr Yeltsin has dropped Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin whose candidacy was rejected twice by the Duma, both times by large majorities. Mr Chernomyrdin remains a declared candidate for the presidential election in two years' time but his hopes are fading fast.
The communists in the Duma were united in their rejection of him and, unlike during the ratification process for Mr Kiriyenko, there was no breaking of ranks. The leader of the communists, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, made it clear that it was Mr Chernomyrdin himself who was unacceptable and not just his policies. Mr Chernomyrdin, with much justification, is tainted by having been prime minister for five years when the Russian economy slid from bad to much worse. He remains a man of influence but of little popularity.
Mr Yeltsin has turned instead to the acting Foreign Minister, Mr Yevgeny Primakov, who only two days ago declared "unambiguously" that he did not want the job. Such are the ways of Russian politics. Mr Primakov's candidacy had been advocated by Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko party. Of more importance, the communists - the largest party in the Duma - have said that they would not oppose him. By this evening it looks as if Russia will have a new prime minister but with a crucial question mark hanging over him. Can he garner sufficient support in parliament and, more particularly, in the country at large for a continuation of economic reform?
Mr Primakov is a former intelligence chief. His grasp of foreign affairs is extensive, especially on Middle East issues. He has credibility abroad but also at home; even the hardened nationalists have respect for him. His reputation stems from being a long-serving and hard-working member of the Soviet and then the Russian nomenklatura. Mr Yeltsin could work well with him because Mr Primakov will not feel the urge to push the President off the stage. As Mr Yavlinsky put it, Mr Primakov "has political authority but he does not have political ambitions".
Upon ratification, Mr Primakov's priority will be to choose his cabinet; this could prove to be complicated and time-consuming. He will want a broadbased cabinet but could get bogged down in horsetrading on government policies as possible participants make their demands. It is vital that Mr Primakov forms a cabinet quickly and reasserts a degree of central authority, even if that means the cabinet is less representative than he would have wished.
Economic reform will be crucial to the success of Mr Primakov's administration. And reform must include collection of taxes and closing down insolvent banks. The financial and industrial barons who control much of the economy will put up stout resistance but they must be sidelined. Russia has overcome great crises in this century and Mr Primakov, most assuredly, is facing another; one which threatens ruination to millions and which could well break the national federation apart.