With the presidential election looming, Russia's acting president Mr Vladimir Putin has suffered a seven per cent drop in popularity in a single week. A period of stalemate in the Chechen war may have accounted for much of his loss of support but a deal which has given effective control of parliament back to the Communists has also played its part. The authoritative post of Speaker of the House has gone to the Communist Mr Gennady Seleznyov. All the influential parliamentary committees are to be chaired either by supporters of Mr Putin or members of the Communist Party. Even the extreme hardliner, Mr Anatoly Lukyanov, the man behind the failed coup d'etat of August 1991, has been given a senior position. Russian liberals have been indignant. The elections of December 19th produced a result which enabled the Kremlin finally to break the communist stranglehold on parliament. The deliberate reinstatement of this dominance, even though the Communists hold little more than one-third of the seats, runs contrary to the will of the Russian people.
Mr Putin is no communist. He will not renationalise industry but he does believe in a strong state and in bolstering his country's military-industrial complex. A Communist Party, many of whose members are more in tune with the Horst Wessel Lied than the Internationale, finds a natural affinity with such policies. Despite his setback in the opinion polls Mr Putin remains far more popular than any of his rivals for the presidency. Four main reasons for this have been put forward: early successes in the Chechen war; his image as a man of his word; his comparative youth and the massive support of the country's two main TV channels.
Now the Chechen campaign appears to be entering a long-drawn out guerrilla stage. Continued media support, particularly with the scheming magnate Mr Boris Berezovsky in the background, is by no means guaranteed. The Duma controversy has begun to erode Mr Putin's image as a man the people can trust. Although it is still too early to make a definitive judgment on Mr Putin's intentions, other disturbing signs about his administration have emerged. Reports of imminent media censorship have been given credibility by the case of the Moscow journalist Mr Alexander Khinsteyn who had accused a number of Mr Putin's associates of corruption. An attempt to commit Mr Khinsteyn to a psychological institution has been foiled only by the timely intervention of his lawyer. The Soviet-era resonances of the Khinsteyn case may further erode Mr Putin's credibility. The arrest of a journalist from Radio Liberty in Chechnya and the denial of facilities in the war zone to the independent NTV channel are other sinister straws in the wind.
Of the four main attributes which have contributed to Mr Putin's popularity only one, his comparative youth, is guaranteed against destruction before the March 26th vote. If the deal with the Communists proves to be anything more than a temporary expedient he will have betrayed an electorate which voted strongly to keep that party out of power. Under such circumstances Mr Putin's loss of support will have been well deserved.