Mr Trimble Does Well

Party conferences are usually tightly-managed affairs, run more for electoral optics than to thrash out differences

Party conferences are usually tightly-managed affairs, run more for electoral optics than to thrash out differences. But even allowing for that, the annual conference of the Ulster Unionists at the weekend was remarkable for its muted expression of divisions on policy and for its broad support for the leadership of Mr David Trimble. There were some dissenting voices. One speaker described the party's participation in the Stormont talks as deception, treachery and duplicity and he had some heads nodding in agreement. But the great mass of the delegates, whatever their private reservations, was content for the moment to endorse Mr Trimble's argument that by engaging in the process the UUP has a veto over any change.

In fact, there was probably just the right amount of dissent to be useful to the leadership. Mr Trimble is taking unionism on a journey into the unknown. Its ultimate destination is very likely an agreement in which he will have to trade off his party's positions against those of the nationalist community. The less room he has to manoeuvre the less his opponents can expect him to give. And there should be no doubt, notwithstanding the easy ride he had on Saturday, that Mr Trimble is still on trial for a great many influential people within the party which he leads.

Yet even his most ungenerous critics within the UUP will acknowledge that he has shown a surefootedness and a sense of judgment over the past year which have added greatly to his political stature. And while there is real and understandable fear of the unknown among rank-and-file unionists, there is a gathering confidence in the ability of Mr Trimble and the leadership to hold the line in the negotiations. There is a great mass of middle-ground thinking which would support a settlement and which is willing, albeit against a background of apprehension and nervousness, to see what the talks process can yield.

The problem is that what may be thought generous, even by the flexible elements of unionism, will fall well short of what is sought by the other side. At the extreme, Sinn Fein declares it is out to "smash the union". Even moderate nationalists insist that any agreement must have significant all-Ireland or crossBorder dimensions. Yet Mr Trimble insists there will be no cross-Border institutions with executive powers. The unionists will insist on a substantial modification or a withdrawal of the Republic's territorial claim on Northern Ireland. But that may prove impossible to sell to the Southern electorate at referendum unless there is an attractive overall settlement on offer.

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There should be no underestimating the resolution of this British government to bring matters to a conclusion. Mr Tony Blair is not willing to have his hoped-for two or three terms in Downing Street dominated by crisis-management in Northern Ireland. The talks will lead to a settlement or, without a shadow of a doubt, Mr Blair will shape a settlement over the heads of the local politicians and go straight to the people with it. All the participants in the talks process realise this and none are more acutely aware of it than the senior membership of the UUP.

For the present, Mr Trimble is on strong ground. His own people may not like having to sit with the ancient enemy. But they know he is right when he says it is the most effective way, in present circumstances, to preserve the unionist citadel. This weekend's conference will have affirmed and reinforced that position. But there will be further and much more demanding tests ahead for the man who may bring unionism into a final settlement and a permanent peace with those who share their living space.