THAT HILLARY Clinton chose to go to Asia on her first trip abroad as the new US secretary of state is a clear indication of where she thinks the central thrust of American foreign policy interests now lie.
Her visits this week to Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China had her in a relaxed and affable listening mode as she set out to repair the damage done to the US image abroad during the Bush administration. But in fact most of the leaders of these states were relatively satisfied with President Bush’s policies. He had a quietly effective relationship with the Chinese as they exported hugely to the US and steadily purchased US treasury bonds with their burgeoning trade and savings surpluses. Jointly responsible for half the world’s carbon emissions, they had a shared interest in avoiding Kyoto commitments to reduce them. And China took on a key role in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Japan, too, remains a key strategic ally of the US under both administrations, as a balance to China’s growing power.
Mrs Clinton told reporters on her way from Seoul to Beijing that the economic crisis, climate change and regional security topped the US-China agenda. Human rights questions are a continuing concern, to be handled by dialogue. A key question will be whether the Obama administration takes a protectionist turn by pressing the case that China is manipulating its currency. That could set a dangerous precedent. It would divert attention from the more important task of managing the economic crisis at global level, since it will take a long time for China’s own domestic demand to make up for the collapse in US consumption. Mrs Clinton will want to keep control over the Chinese relationship rather than see it dominated by economic departments in Washington.
Another key issue is how the US and China play into this year’s negotiations on what should succeed the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. There is huge scope for them to co-operate on technology transfer over carbon capture and storage, for example. But the rest of the world will want to bring both states into whatever new regime is agreed at Copenhagen next December.
Regional security issues are complicated by North Korea’s resentment of the new conservative government in Seoul, with both states now going back on previous agreements. That should be manageable in the new US-China engagement, if it is to live up to its growing reputation as the world’s most important emerging bilateral relationship. From the European point of view, much hangs on how Mrs Clinton handles these issues.