Negotiations on future of Cyprus

A great deal is at stake in the negotiations on Cyprus's future, which will conclude today at a summit in the Swiss mountain …

A great deal is at stake in the negotiations on Cyprus's future, which will conclude today at a summit in the Swiss mountain resort of Bürgenstock.

Attended by the United Nations secretary-general, Mr Kofi Annan, the Turkish and Greek prime ministers, and leaders from the European Union and both parts of Cyprus, this is the final chance to strike a deal before Mr Annan crafts his own compromise and puts it to referendums on the divided island on April 20th. If his proposals are rejected, only the southern Greek-Cypriot state would enter the EU on May 1st, and Turkey's aspirations as a candidate for EU accession would be seriously set back.

After such a prolonged negotiating impasse these tight deadlines were accepted to force the pace and in the expectation that the parties involved would have a mandate to reach a compromise. Both the Turkish prime minister, Mr Tayyip Erdogan, and his Greek counterpart, Mr Costas Karamanlis, have received strong electoral endorsement recently. They want to reach an agreement if at all possible so as to maintain the momentum of improving Turkish-Greek relations; but they must also bring along their respective Cypriot partner. They are very wary about being accused of betrayal if they fail to do so.

Mr Annan's own compromise plan, tabled on Monday, proposes to give more land to the Greek Cypriots in a settlement but to allow fewer of them return to the Turkish Cypriot territory than previously suggested. An estimated 180,000 Greek Cypriots fled south in 1974 when the Turkish army invaded and have been replaced on the land by some 115,000 settlers from mainland Turkey since then. But the much more developed Greek Cypriots are four times as wealthy as the Turkish ones, creating fears that were they to have free rights to invest in or purchase land and housing, the Turkish Cypriots would be overwhelmed.

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Mr Annan's plan proposes that these numbers be restricted to 18 per cent of the Turkish Cypriot population. A major difficulty is the demand by the Turkish side that the EU grant an indefinite derogation on the free movement of capital and people to protect this identity. Only 45,000 people each from mainland Turkey and Greece would be allowed to remain on the island. Otherwise a loose federation of Cyprus would be governed by a nine person presidential council of six Greeks and three Turks, three of them with no voting rights, and with many powers and competences devolved to separate but equal administrations. There would be a scaled down Turkish military presence, to be reviewed if and when Turkey joins the EU.

There is ample scope for creative compromise in these proposals, which could create mutual trust by selling it as a victory for both sides - although this would be difficult. Greek Cypriots say Mr Annan has tilted too far to the Turkish side, which argues in turn that his plan does not go far enough to protect their weaker position.