INSIDE POLITICS:FINE GAEL activists have gathered in Killarney this weekend confident that the party stands on the cusp of its greatest election victory, but the more experienced among them are also acutely aware that in politics nothing can be taken for granted, whatever the opinion polls say or however unpopular the Government has become, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
The omens are now pointing to a general election sometime in the next 12 months or so, and possibly even before the end of the year.
At this stage the only question seems to be just how badly Fianna Fáil will do, and just how the spoils of victory will be divided between Fine Gael and the Labour Party.
It is hard to believe that a little more than a month ago there was a media frenzy over the future of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny following George Lee’s shock departure from politics. It’s now “George who?” as far as the political world is concerned.
The succession of disasters to befall the Government, including the resignation of two ministers for very different reasons, and the resignation of Green Party minister of state Trevor Sargent, has taken the spotlight off the Fine Gael leader and put it firmly back on the Coalition’s survival prospects.
Given the scale of the problems facing the Government on so many fronts, there is no knowing how long it will survive. It will have to take politically toxic decisions in the next few weeks involving a massive investment of public money in the country’s broken banks, while further savage budget cuts and tax increases are inevitable in the next budget.
The palpable public anger at the current state of the country is the strongest card in the Opposition’s hand, and Fine Gael capitalised on it by consistently denouncing Fianna Fáil’s record. The tactic has worked well but the danger is that voters will not be prepared for the kind of measures the party will have to implement when it gets into government. As far as most Fine Gael TDs are concerned, they will cross that bridge when they come to it.
The scale of the political surprises since Christmas has demonstrated just how foolish it is to make firm predictions about the political future. At this stage most politicians are only prepared to assume that the Coalition will survive until June, when it will have been in office for three years. After that it is anybody’s guess what will happen.
The renewed political uncertainty has played a large part in restoring discipline in the Fine Gael ranks after the wobble on the day George Lee departed. At that stage the Fianna Fáil-Green Party Coalition looked to be in a secure position for the rest of 2010, having successfully negotiated a series of political hurdles in the autumn.
The Coalition’s ability to survive the Lisbon referendum, Nama, the renegotiation of the programme for government and the budget encouraged the belief that there would not be an election for some time, in all likelihood 2012. That view may have influenced Lee’s decision to quit but it also prompted discussion in Fine Gael about Kenny’s future.
Just as the view in January that the 30th Dáil had another two years to run prompted discussion about a change of leader, the current mood of uncertainty about when the election will take place has taken the issue off the political agenda.
The vast majority of Fine Gael TDs are determined not to repeat the mistakes of the past and engage in a bout of internal blood letting just when the greatest opportunity they have ever had to overtake Fianna Fáil as the biggest party in the State presents itself.
In the course of his eight years as party leader, Kenny managed to stave off the growth of contending factions within the parliamentary party. That facility of being able to avoid serious internal conflict has contributed to an electoral record of steady progress back from the brink of extinction to becoming the largest party in the most recent national elections.
Ironically, now that the defining election of Kenny’s leadership is coming within range there is some evidence of discontent in the parliamentary ranks, mainly because of his decision to embrace the notion of political reform. That involves taking on the political insiders, including those in his own party.
Kenny has accepted that it is idle for an Opposition to talk about reforming the health service, the banking system and the economy while shirking the need to reform the political system itself. There are divided views in Fine Gael about how far the party should go in advocating fundamental change like cutting the number of TDs, changing the electoral system, overhauling Dáil committees and abolishing the Seanad, but the leader is right to put the issue centre stage.
If he wants to impress the public with his seriousness about the need for reform at all levels of Irish society Kenny will have to confront a range of vested interests, including those in the political system. It is a challenge he should not shirk, but it will take determination and political skill to push his programme through.
At this stage most Fine Gael TDs have come to terms with the fact that he is never going to win the party leader popularity contest, at least while he is leader of the Opposition. Given that the country has been brought to the brink of ruin by the most popular political leader it ever had, Bertie Ahern, voters may even decide next time around that a political leader should have more important qualities than a craving for approval. In any case, as long as Fine Gael remains strong in the polls and TDs are happy their own seats are safe, Kenny should be safe from potential conspiracies.
Having endured persistent criticism and even derision from segments of the media during his entire eight years as leader, Kenny has demonstrated a resilience and toughness that has surprised the critics who have consistently underestimated him. That experience will stand him in good stead if, and when, he becomes Taoiseach.