Newton Emerson: Stormont must agree to disagree for powersharing to survive crisis

Perhaps the Northern Ireland Executive, like the US Supreme Court, should publish majority and dissenting opinions.

This is a serious suggestion. Even in normal times there would be obvious issues with a coalition comprising all five of Stormont’s main parties and 84 of its 90 Assembly members. How realistic is it to expect them to agree on everything? Where is opposition and scrutiny to come from?

In these extraordinary times there is an increased expectation of a united front, yet the strains are all the greater.

Three weeks since the Executive unveiled its coronavirus strategy, it has settled into a ridiculous ritual. First, Sinn Féin briefs journalists that it cannot support current policy, citing differences with the Republic. Then the DUP piously counter-briefs that now is not the time to play party politics. The media spends several hours wondering if devolution is about to collapse. Finally, around teatime, DUP First Minister Arlene Foster and Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill gloss it all over at their daily press conference.

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Both women have delivered master classes in this throughout the past week, agreeing to disagree so agreeably they hardly seem to disagree at all. They have adopted the common line that everyone knows they have their differences but their shared objective is saving lives. Foster had no issue on Tuesday saying “We are on an island” and supporting extensive North-South co-operation, while innocently adding there would be “slightly different actions at slightly different times”.

O’Neill said she had “an obligation as a political leader to call out where there is a difference of approach”, while innocently adding it was not “an orange or green issue”.

Cynical attacks

Of course, matters are messier behind the scenes. Republican attacks on Alliance for agreeing with unionist parties have been particularly cynical. However, Sinn Féin cannot walk out of the Executive during this crisis, as such an abandonment would play badly north and south. The DUP does not care if Sinn Féin agrees with it as long as it does not halt Executive business. So both parties have created an informal dissent mechanism that would be considered a miracle of the peace process in any other context.

The question is whether this will be enough for the challenging months ahead, to keep devolution going and tackle the epidemic.

Differences between the parties have to date been relatively harmless.

School closures were a marginal decision and other lockdown measures were introduced almost simultaneously on both sides of the Border. When Sinn Féin and the DUP fell out last week over which businesses should remain open, they quickly agreed to refer it to a new committee. On Monday, they disagreed on the availability of personal protection equipment but nobody disputes more of it is better.

Testing

On Tuesday, they arrived at differences over testing, which presents a far more fundamental problem.

The Irish Government is following a South Korean model of testing, tracing and isolation to suppress cases.

The UK government’s plan for testing is set out clearly in the March 16th report from its advisers at Imperial College London, which caused the sudden switch in approach from mitigation to suppression.

The report’s only reference to testing outside hospitals says: “As case numbers fall, it becomes more feasible to adopt intensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures akin to the strategies being employed in South Korea today.”

In other words, it is too late for the UK to use testing on the way up the peak of the epidemic but it can suppress the peak with other measures then introduce testing on the way down.

Unsurprisingly, London is having trouble admitting this. Michael Gove, the deputy prime minister, was suspiciously evasive on the subject at a press conference on Tuesday. The apparent lack of urgency is creating mistrust in the UK and Ireland and causing a split at Stormont, where the DUP has accepted UK scientific advice and all other parties except Sinn Féin either concur or are observing collective responsibility.

Even if the UK was forthright about its intentions, there would be too much of a difference from the Republic for Sinn Féin to go along with. Cross-Border co-operation and co-ordination are not enough – Sinn Féin has told its supporters anything less than policy harmonisation will cost lives.

The risk of North and South “contaminating” each other looks overdone. Both are on lockdown, Northern Ireland is receiving only one commercial flight a week and nobody in the Republic can go 2km beyond their home. However, North and South have been set on different trajectories and inevitable differences in mortality figures are already being seized on, highlighted and in some cases exploited. If statistics diverge significantly, even for a brief period, there will be enormous political tension.

There is no chance of Stormont surviving this, and making what contribution it can, if a lack of consensus in the Executive is considered a crisis in itself.