In these momentous days it is easy to miss significant developments. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar should have garnered more attention last week when he stood up in the Dáil and demanded the end of mandatory powersharing in Northern Ireland.
Responding to a question from Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, who called for a "redesign" of Stormont's "mandatory coalition arrangements", Varadkar did not agree directly but said he wanted an end to the Northern Assembly's designation system where members must declare themselves "unionist", "nationalist" or "other".
Designation is used to appoint a cross-community executive under the Belfast Agreement. It is fundamental to how the peace process was negotiated.
The need for Brexit consent has focused attention on the Assembly’s veto mechanism, the petition of concern, which also depends on designation.
Scrapping the petition seems inarguable now that unionism and nationalism are minorities and the unaligned centre is on the rise. Why have protection against majoritarianism when there are no majorities?
Varadkar strongly objected to Alliance members not being counted in Assembly vetoes. The petition has enabled blocking of contentious issues, entrenching division and deadlock. Without it unionists and nationalists would have to woo Alliance or build cross-community consensus, dragging politics to the centre.
Ending mandatory powersharing is a different proposition. Where the petition is about unionists and nationalists blocking each other, powersharing is about making them work together. It is not problematic in addressing the rise of “others” – Alliance qualifies to join the executive by size alone.
A wrinkle in the rules should also be noted. If designation was switched from Assembly members to parties, the petition could be dropped without affecting executive formation.
Powersharing
Stormont is unlikely to return without a radical redesign in negotiations led by London and Dublin. The Irish Government is clearly pondering changes to powersharing, and it would be understandable to look at the mess in Northern Ireland and imagine an executive without the DUP.
A farcical attempt at a one-day Assembly recall this week showed the unionist party has learned nothing about how its arrogance caused devolution to collapse.
Unionists have not been alone in asking if a Sinn Féin walkout should have put Stormont into cold storage. The minimum implication of an executive surviving the departure of one of its two largest parties is that powersharing should be attempted after every election but not required throughout an executive term.
If Varadkar meant the full implication of his remarks he wants voluntary coalition. This has often been posited as an ideal end-state of “normal politics”, but it remains inconceivable that executive formation could be entrusted to a simple majority basis, where every unionist or nationalist could be excluded.
When people in Northern Ireland imagine government without Sinn Féin or the DUP they imagine the SDLP or the UUP stepping in to maintain a cross-community balance. This could be done by formal requirement or informal convention, on the understanding of political necessity.
In practice, no smaller party can risk being seen as helping to exclude the main party of its designation. A minor demonstration occurred this week when Sinn Féin boycotted the DUP’s Assembly recall then crucified the SDLP for turning up.
Devolution
The history of devolution can be viewed as requiring new arrangements each time the electoral dynamic changes within Northern Ireland’s five-party system.
The 2006 St Andrews agreement followed Sinn Féin and the DUP becoming the largest parties. The DUP believes Sinn Féin walked out in 2017 partly because Stormont had evolved a voluntary opposition, and republicans could not bear losing their SDLP “mudguard”.
Perhaps the focus of restoration should be less on changing Stormont’s rules and more on driving new dynamics between and within parties until Sinn Féin and the DUP come to terms or another combination of executive leadership seems achievable.
When Stormont falls the Belfast Agreement requires repeated elections until an executive is formed. This requirement has been suspended for the past three years, which increasingly looks like a mistake. If Sinn Féin became the largest party, for example, the DUP might hesitate to serve under a republican first minister – an objection with no legitimacy.
If Alliance eclipsed the SDLP or UUP it would undermine the rationale for reserving the first and deputy first minister posts for unionists and nationalists. These would be excellent opportunities to review mandatory coalition.
Partnership
London and Dublin gave the DUP a shove at St Andrews by warning they would govern Northern Ireland in partnership. That was an unbalanced threat as many nationalists would prefer it. Direct rule is a unionist equivalent.
Both governments need to find a gentler way of applying pressure, leaving no side threatened yet putting unco-operative parties on notice of being marginalised.
Varadkar may have inadvertently hinted at such an idea last week when he said London and Dublin would fund infrastructure in Northern Ireland after a Brexit deal.
How much could politics be transformed at Stormont if the Republic was contributing to the budget?