There will be no political progress without consensus on justice and policing - and time is running out for the fractious parties to agree a way forward, writes Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor
You can be sure of at least one thing in 2003. When it comes to the current crisis in Northern politics, policing will be lurking in the shadows.
Controversy over law and order powers were to the fore when Edward Heath ended more than 50 years of unionist rule at Stormont in 1972. The recent release of State papers underscores that much.
The same issue is again prominent as the parties and the two governments strive to find a way to devolve powers back to Stormont in time for elections scheduled for May and to point out the path by which local control of justice and policing can be signed over to the power-sharing Executive.
Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness warned yesterday that the next few weeks will be as critical to the political process as any in the past 30 years. He normally chooses his words carefully, and it is fair to suggest that Patten, policing and justice powers are included on the list of his main concerns.
There has been a sea change in policing but yet some things never seem to change. Hugh Orde, the North's Chief Constable, told the Policing Board recently his hands were tied when it came to making new appointments to help ease his force's staffing crisis.
Only 26 Catholics who applied met the selection criteria and, as a result of the 50:50 recruitment rule, only a total of 52 appointments could be made. For many, though, the creation of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was never going to be a quick fix.
"We are in this for the long haul," Prof Desmond Rea said. The chairman of the Policing Board, which runs Northern Ireland's fledgling replacement for the RUC, is not known for flamboyant use of language. But this remark, contained in the chairman's foreword of his board's first annual report, strikes a chord with close observers of the slow revolution in Belfast post-Good Friday agreement.
It was expected that the first 12 months of the PSNI would be eventful, but the odds were long on the sort of challenge and controversy the board has met and surmounted since its inception on November 4th, 2001.
The 19-member body - 10 are members of the suspended Assembly and the rest are drawn from public life - has proved itself to be an unlikely winner of plaudits from commentators.
But the board has managed to maintain its collective hand on the tiller despite its politically diverse composition and the sensitivity of its task.
To have coped thus far was as much as some could have hoped this time last year, but to have achieved what it has done seemed a pipe- dream.
An early challenge centred on a symbolic rather than practical matter - the police crest. Unionists, anxious and pained at the loss of the RUC and its badge after standing against paramilitary violence for 30 years, were in opposition to the SDLP, which was equally enthusiastic for as much evidence as possible of a new start to policing.
Between them, and against the predictions of many, a new crest was agreed.
It is replete with symbolism loaded with references to justice and to the two traditions, but the real triumph was not one of design. Rather it was that an agreement could be struck.
No sooner had this been agreed then furore erupted over the leaking of a devastating investigation by the Police Ombudsman, Mrs Nuala O'Loan, into the RUC's handling of the Omagh bombing of 1998.
The then Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, lost his usual composure and vowed public suicide if Mrs O'Loan's criticisms were even half-right.
The danger arose that the new policing structure, comprising three competing offices of the Ombudsman, the Chief Constable and the Policing Board, could come unstuck. The fallout between the police service command and the scrutineer was as fundamental as it was profound.
It fell to the Policing Board to come up with an answer. Following three days of meetings in February, the circle was squared. The Omagh investigation continued, aided by a senior officer from Merseyside who would report directly to the board and "quality assure" the handling of the hunt for the bombers who killed 29 people. It was a neat move and a politically astute plan which was an outright victory for no one.
The Northern Secretary at the time, Dr John Reid, said board members had displayed "the wisdom of Solomon". He looked and sounded like a man who had been spared a very big problem indeed.
SIR Ronnie himself became the focus of the next crisis. He was due to retire at the end of February of his own choosing, but no moves had been taken to appoint a successor. He let it be known he was open to requests to stay on. Some unionists were keen for him to be asked - the Policing Board has the power to request this - just as much as nationalists were keen to see him depart. Having helped to implement change in policing, they were keen for a new face unconnected with the RUC and Special Branch past.
The issue again forced Policing Board divisions along old political lines.
Two weeks before his notice period was up, the British Home Secretary appointed him one of Her Majesty's Inspectors of Constabulary, the police watchdog for England and Wales - a prestigious and plum job.
Rumour of cute political fixing was rampant, but the board agreed to let Sir Ronnie remain as PSNI chief for an additional month only and to work under stricter conditions. His deputy, Mr Colin Cramphorn, would then take over in a caretaker capacity until a successor was found.
The compromise enhanced the board's reputation almost as much as it seemed to tarnish Sir Ronnie's. He eventually left just before the graduation of the first batch of police trainees chosen under strict new Patten guidelines, with his former deputy taking centre stage.
The board then turned attention to the search for a successor. Initial reports suggested, incorrectly, that very few suitable candidates had applied. But added to the names of prominent officers with the PSNI was one Hugh Orde. He was chosen in preference to Mr Alan McQuillan and Mr Chris Albiston, both senior men under Sir Ronnie.
Mr Orde, a Deputy Assistant Commissioner to Sir John Stevens of London's Metropolitan Police, was announced as the next Chief Constable at the end of May. Nationalists were thrilled. Unionists refused to sit with the new man as Prof Rea announced the appointment at a late-night press conference. There was quiet satisfaction in Dublin.
If it was difference in character and style the Policing Board sought when it chose Sir Ronnie's successor, it found it in abundance in Hugh Orde.
Keen to show that the new policing dispensation was indeed just that and not a repackaged RUC, nationalist board members hoped Mr Orde's style would help facilitate abstentionist Sinn Féiners on to the Policing Board.
They are still waiting, but the signs are far from discouraging. Amendments to policing legislation now before the House of Commons could bridge the gap between Sinn Féin and the Policing Board. The legislation will take up to 16 weeks and much horse trading. We'll know by next month.
In the meantime, Prof Rea's board ploughs on. Its three-year plan points with some hard-earned confidence to a more positive future. It establishes as priorities the promotion of safety and a reduction in disorder.
The PSNI, hamstrung by absurd levels of absenteeism, low morale and arguments over resources, is to achieve confidence levels of 51 per cent or better in the policing of public disorder. It must also prove both serious and competent in tackling the violence, racketeering and gangsterism that has marked the loyalist paramilitaries' campaigns of late. Results rather than words will be required to convince the sceptics.
Viewed in that context, Prof Rea's comments about the "long haul" are revealed in their true light.