Prospects for an autumn Northern Ireland election have improved significantly, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
At the moment the chances are better than even money that Northern Ireland politicians will be tramping the roads in the dark, dismal days and nights of November or December seeking election to an assembly that may or may not be able to sit.
Mr Martin McGuinness wouldn't tell The Irish Times yesterday what he and Mr Gerry Adams said to the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, when they met secretly in London last Wednesday week. But here's an educated guess: "We want elections, and we want them now, Tony."
A lot more besides was obviously said because, based on that encounter and their meeting the following day with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, the British and Irish leaders felt disposed to organise a fireside summit for this Saturday afternoon at Chequers. Some hope there.
Incredibly, notwithstanding other travails, Mr Blair has been keeping his eye on Northern Ireland. Of course, it could be a happy distraction from his other troubles.
Mr McGuinness was prepared to tell us that contact at the "highest level" was maintained between Sinn Féin and the two governments throughout the summer and that contact had "intensified" in recent weeks.
That ball started gathering speed from Monday when, at a briefing, Sinn Féin suggested there was no hope of republican initiatives without an election, but implicitly suggesting that, with an election, there was hope of IRA movement.
Mr McGuinness noted that some commentators saw a certain logic flowing from this briefing, the summit and the "private" meeting with Mr Blair of some new gestures from the IRA to assist the chances of calling assembly elections.
There was no such logic, Mr McGuinness said. "I think this is a sobering thought for people, but even with an election there is no guarantee of initiatives from republicans."
That was a rather stark message, but typically of Sinn Féin, in the very same press conference yesterday Mr McGuinness offered a more positive spin. Republicans were not averse to working collectively with the other parties to achieve a breakthrough, he suggested.
There will be much more hardballing by republicans in the weeks ahead. The two governments are clear in their minds about the very least they require from republicans before elections are guaranteed: a return to last April when the IRA was prepared to carry out some decommissioning, to signal that it would go out of business and perhaps join the Policing Board.
Mr McGuinness says what was potentially on offer from the IRA in April is not necessarily on the table now. And while he insists there is no hope of movement without an election date set in stone, be assured that Mr Blair will not trigger a poll without private assurances from republicans that he can relay to Mr Trimble.
Mr Blair, in particular, remains loyal to Mr Trimble and will be very reluctant to cast him into an election without some initiative from the IRA before the poll, and the potential for more "acts of completion" after the vote.
Based on 10 years or more of this peace process it could be a couple of weeks before we start arriving at the bottom lines of the protagonists. We are entering a period of intensive, mostly behind-the-scenes negotiations involving republicans and the two governments, with Mr Trimble and the UUP observing closely from the sidelines.
Possibly the best the governments can hope for would be some decommissioning ahead of elections and signals that after the election the IRA will cease activity, as required in paragraph 13 of the Hillsborough joint declaration.
Mr Trimble would like more arguments in his arsenal going into an election with a jittery party. But he will have some ammunition, too. He can argue that he won't return to the assembly and executive with Sinn Féin short of acts of completion from the IRA, and that the British and Irish governments support him in this stance.
And he can argue that if the IRA finally pledges to go out of business the International Monitoring Commission will ensure that it is honouring such a commitment.