It is a great paradox that the Nice Treaty, whose ratification will be a major preoccupation for the incoming government, was hardly discussed at all during the election campaign.
In consequence, as is shown in today's Irish Times/MRBI poll, popular opinion on the issue has drifted, evenly split between those who would support the treaty in a second referendum, those who would oppose it and those who don't know. It will be difficult indeed to carry a vote in the autumn, with precious little political time to convince the electorate this is necessary.
Political leaders may reply that national elections concern domestic affairs, not European or foreign policy ones. Health, education, welfare, crime and security are largely handled at national level. And in any case, the parties refer to European and international issues in their manifestos.
While this is true, the argument overlooks the increasing interlocking of domestic and European affairs. It is most apparent in the economic sphere but it also includes the environment, foreign and security affairs. Politicians who do not explore the implications of this in their electoral campaigning risk an apathetic or negative backlash from voters when they ask them to endorse EU treaties by referendum.
Calling for the Nice issue to be discussed more openly in the election campaign last week, Mr John Bruton invited parties which support ratifying the treaty to spell out clearly the dangerous consequences that would follow from a second referendum defeat. They include political and economic marginalisation from the mainstream European policies which have underwritten Ireland's striking economic and social progress over the last ten years. Ireland must choose whether to continue its constructive role at the centre of EU policy-making by endorsing a treaty regarded by its EU partners as vital for enlargement.
This opinion poll shows there is a great deal of ground to be made up in making that case after the election, as one third of the electorate do not know where they stand on the issue. A major mobilisation and effective leadership will be required to convince a confused electorate.