And so to South Tipperary. But before that the small matter of the referendums next Thursday. Drapier warned a few weeks ago that there was an air of complacency and a degree of laziness on the Yes side which posed a danger to their successful passage.
Drapier is less worried now. His own canvassing persuades him that a majority of those who will vote will vote Yes. And a substantial majority at that.
It will be a vote given out of duty rather than enthusiasm. The national debate has been simplistic and at times dishonest but most of all very short of riveting. Out canvassing, Drapier found few people wanted to discuss the issues and fewer still had any interest in them. There was a vague sense that a Yes was in the national interest and there was absolutely no sense of precious rights being ceded to Europe, or any of the Europhobe angst that Wil- liam Hague has so haplessly injected into his election campaign.
Some of Drapier's pro-euro friends tuttut at this lack of commitment and wonder what sort of country it is when only 12 per cent of those polled say they understand the Treaty of Nice. Drapier takes the opposite view and is surprised that 12 per cent do understand it - or claim to understand it. Nor is Drapier concerned that people are not enthusiastic. The truth is that it is hard to get people worked up very much about anything these days, and while the enlarging and reforming of the EU may rank high in terms of global importance, it is remote from the ordinary lives of most people. And there is nothing particularly wrong with that.
So Drapier expects a low poll. And a clear-cut Yes victory. Some may want to give the Government or politicians in general a bloody nose and some no doubt will vote to do so, but it won't be enough to "embarrass the Government in the eyes of Europe" or "disgrace our name among the EU states", as some of the more perfervid Europhiles tell us will be the consequence of a No victory. Drapier really wishes the Yes advocates would drop that sort of mendacious claptrap. The vast majority of the peoples of the European Union don't give a damn what we do on June 7th and the picture of politicians and people on the sidewalks of Paris or in the backwoods of Bavaria waiting breathlessly with nail-bitten fingers for the results to come in from Bagenalstown and Bandon is just another example of the sort of self-importance and overblown rhetoric which some of our Eurocrats have made their own.
If the Nice referendum goes wrong we will have another one a few months on. The skies will not fall in. We will still be in the EU, maybe a little wiser and a little more humble, but the world will go on. Drapier does not believe it will come to that. He will be voting Yes and so he believes will 70 per cent of those who bother to vote.
But perhaps when it is all over we might consider why it is that the reality of what is happening in the EU, much of it exciting, even momentous, makes such little impact on so many people. A question our MEPs might usefully address.
Tipperary will be a much sharper battle. A lot has happened in the year since we last campaigned there. Theresa Ahearn, so active in that campaign and so generous in her support of Tom Hayes, is no longer with us and is sadly missed by her many friends. Seamus Healy has taken his seat, and to everyone's surprise is one of the more silent members of the Dail, yet to make any real impact. Add to that the change of leadership in Fine Gael, with Michael Noonan seriously in need of an electoral boost, and Bertie Ahern's failure to win a single by-election since becoming Taoiseach, coupled with Labour's need to build a base from which to regain its lost seat, and we can see the stakes are high.
The smart money makes Tom Hayes the early favourite. The seat is a Fine Gael seat, he performed impressively last time, has consolidated his position since then and is the only established candidate going into the election. More than that, the stakes are highest for his party, so he should expect strong support from parliamentary colleagues.
All very well as far as it goes, but it is far from the full story. Fianna Fail's Michael Maguire is regarded as a stronger candidate than Barry O'Brien was and geographically he could eat into some of Tom Hayes's vote. More than most parties, Fianna Fail learns from mistakes and Bertie Ahern will be expecting a sharper performance this time. Labour's Denis Landy is experienced but will not have the sympathy factory which Ellen Ferris did. Phil Prendergast, the candidate of Seamus Healy's party, is not nearly as well known as her leader, and lightning is unlikely to strike twice on this occasion.
Drapier knows how unpredictable byelections can be, but expects South Tipp to revert to its natural political divide - a battle between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. As far as Drapier is concerned, it is still too early to call but after a few days knocking on doors the picture may be clearer.
On the question of elections, Drapier was very struck by how adamant Bertie Ahern was during his impressive Late Late performance that there was no question of an autumn election - that it was going to be this time next year. Drapier has always taken Bertie Ahern at his word on this matter and continues to do so. More than most, Bertie knows that the voters do not thank any government for calling an unnecessary election, and such a call would greatly dent his own credibility, since he has gone to so much trouble to stress his position on the matter. So, no matter what happens in South Tipperary, Drapier expects the House to come back in the autumn.
Where the tribunals will be in the autumn is another day's work. The Haughey saga continues, though by now it is something of a spent force with little room left for further surprises.
Not so with the Lowry investigation. The nub question here is whether the mobile phone licence contest was contaminated. Drapier is going to wait to hear the evidence before entering any judgment on that one. He has heard the rumours, savoured the innuendo and listened to the gossip, but he knows too that this is a shark-infested pool with big egos and bigger agendas where commercial interest and media influence may overlap. He prefers at this stage the caution of Brian Cowen and his faith in the integrity of the public servants involved in the process to speculation which still lacks a solid core of fact.
But as far as Drapier is concerned the sooner Moriarty gets to this issue the better for everybody.