How will The Prod in the Garden Centre vote next Thursday? Will she (or he) vote at all? These are the questions that dominate the Westminster by-election campaign in South Antrim.
The poll follows the death of MP Clifford Forsythe. The seat has been held by the Ulster Unionist Party for as long as anyone can remember and Mr Forsythe had an enviable majority of 16,000. Things have changed. There are no easy certainties for unionists any more. This time around the contest is, to all intents and purposes, a battle for David Trimble's future and, by extension, for the Belfast Agreement as we know it.
The DUP's the Rev William McCrea is foursquare against the agreement. His party's slogan - Your Chance to Put Things Right - is aimed at those unionists who came out to vote Yes in the 1998 referendum, but who have changed their minds. He has an added personal interest in winning, having lost his Westminster seat in Mid-Ulster to Martin McGuinness in the last British general election. The Sinn Fein Minister of Education is seen by very many unionists as epitomising their worst nightmares about the Belfast Agreement and all that flows from it. There will be a temptation to vote for Mr McCrea as a way of giving a poke in the eye to Sinn Fein.
David Burnside, the UUP candidate, is problematic. At times he has seemed to back the agreement, at others to be opposed to it. He has caused problems for David Trimble by the South Antrim over a close Trimble aide was a setback for the pro-agreement unionists. David Burnside claims his only wish is to unite the party. He has mustered some heavy guns to impress the good folk of South Antrim. Lord Molyneaux has been out on the campaign trail. This week John Lloyd of the New Statesman and Dean Godson of the Daily Telegraph praised the candidate's ability to make friends and influence people at Westminster. This was designed to emphasise the contrast between Mr Burnside's sophisticated political skills and the somewhat rougher talents of the gospel-singing Willie McCrea.
There are those within unionism who suspect that David Burnside has his sights firmly trained on the UUP leadership. He is a more experienced operator than Jeffrey Donaldson and his position within the party would be greatly strengthened if he were to win a Westminster seat. Nonetheless, it is critically important for David Trimble that Mr Burnside win next week.
The loss of this safe seat would precipitate an immediate crisis within the party. It would bring Mr Trimble's critics - known and unknown - out of the woodwork and consolidate the anti-agreement forces. The party's conference is in early October and the call for another leadership challenge would probably prove irresistible.
What is being tested next week is whether Protestant middle class voters can be galvanised to go out and vote for Mr Burnside, in order to support the Belfast Agreement. One unionist insider has said he believes the difference in support for the UUP and the DUP could come down to a thousand votes, hence the importance of the so-called Prod in the Garden Centre, who is presumed to be in favour of peace and political stability.
In 1998, at the time of the referendum on the Belfast Agreement, these people were persuaded to go out and vote Yes. This may have been due in part to the high profile of its supporters, who ranged from President Clinton and Tony Blair to Van Morrison and Bono. But there was a real sense of excitement that the individual's vote was important and might even contribute to historic change. Now many unionists who voted Yes have become disillusioned with the agreement, particularly on issues like prisoner releases and Sinn Fein members in government.
There are also middle-class unionists who can't be bothered. Their decision to vote in the referendum was a one-off. Generally, they see the whole business of politics as vulgar, something in which they prefer not to become involved. It was Terence O'Neill who commented thus on his dwindling support within his own party: "Moderates don't vote". The situation has worsened over the years. It is not done to discuss politics at comfortable dinner parties in North Down. Fear and loathing in the Shankill? The future of the RUC? Nothing to do with us. In recent years the children of the unionist middle classes have voted with their feet. They go to university across the water and have no plans to return to live in Northern Ireland.
It has been a serious failure of the peace process that it has not managed to convince these people that they have a serious stake in the future of Northern Ireland and a moral duty to try and shape it. David Trimble has tried, particularly in more recent times. He has argued cogently that the Belfast Agreement gives his community a second chance to create a form of unionism which has a place for both traditions. But he has received very little support in promoting this debate from the leaders of what one might describe as civic unionism - the professional middle classes, the churches, the business community and so on.
The Prod in the Garden Centre prefers to stand aside, too squeamish to become involved in politics. And yet the whole future of peace in Northern Ireland could depend on his (or her) decision to become active participants in shaping a better future. That means taking an interest in politics as well as Gardeners' Question Time.