Opposition parties have mountain to climb in light of latest poll findings
Michael Noonan has trouble enough. A string of bad publicity has blighted the opening months of his leadership of Fine Gael. And now he is faced with a high-risk situation: should he gamble his authority on winning an iffy by-election in Tipperary South, or put his head down and hope the Coalition Government lasts into next year?
The stakes are enormous. If Mr Noonan opts for caution and leaves unfilled the vacancy caused by the death of Therese Ahearn, he risks losing the small momentum gained by Fine Gael under his leadership. But if he calls a by-election and loses, the party would be desperately vulnerable to a snap general election called by Fianna Fail in the autumn.
So does he attempt to build a head of steam in a summer by-election and hope to add to it in the autumn, or opt for a late charge on the basis of Bertie Ahern's insistence that there will not be a general election until 2002?
The results of today's opinion poll suggest that the present Coalition Government, with the support of Independent TDs, would be returned in a general election. With adjusted support for Fianna Fail running at 42 per cent, the Progressive Democrats at 4 per cent and Independents (including the Workers' Party) at 8 per cent, the figures are likely to stack up. And, in a worst-case scenario, it might be possible to rely on Sinn Fein's strong 6 per cent showing to secure the re-election of Mr Ahern as Taoiseach.
From the Opposition benches, the scenario looks bleak. A Fine Gael/Labour Party axis, with 24 and 13 per cent respectively, falls far short of what would be required to form a government. And support from the Green Party, at 3 per cent, would not make up the numbers.
True, Fine Gael has added four points to its adjusted figures since Mr Noonan ousted John Bruton as party leader in February. But that only claws back lost ground. And Mr Noonan's own satisfaction rating, at 37 per cent, is no better than that last held by Mr Bruton. The difference between the two men lies in dissatisfaction ratings, where Mr Noonan's negative response, at 28 per cent, is 15 points better than his predecessor.
Such figures will not make a Fine Gael summer. But with 35 per cent of the electorate still undecided about Mr Noonan, following his bumbling handling of financial scandals in the party in earlier years, there is room for improvement.
Ruairi Quinn has watched adjusted support for the Labour Party drop by 3 points in a year. Even more worrying, there has been a sudden, precipitous slide in party support, from 13 per cent to 8 per cent, in Dublin. The new profile puts Labour in fourth position, behind Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Sinn Fein. Last January, it was leading both Fine Gael and Sinn Fein in the capital.
The Opposition parties have a mountain to climb. And, if they are to stand a chance of forming the next government, they had better start now. Nerves are already jangling as they watch Fianna Fail put in the foundations for an autumn general election. It's not, Government ministers quietly explain, that they are actually planning a quick trip to the country; just that they are taking precautions should one happen.
In clearing the decks for a general election, the Government has spoken of investing heavily in the health services. It has also unveiled a Drugs Strategy, promised extensive deregulation, cut taxes, introduced a new savings scheme and shored up the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness. Joe Walsh played a blinder, after a shaky start, in combating foot-and-mouth disease. And the Taoiseach kept a steadying hand on Northern affairs.
Mary Harney has become increasingly concerned about the impact a rapidly slowing US economy may have on investment and employment in this State. A hard shock could cause house prices to tumble next year. And no government would wish to campaign in a climate of negative equity.
Support for the Tanaiste's party remains static at 4 per cent. But her own satisfaction rating climbed to a healthy 59 per cent, up five points in five months.
The Taoiseach is flying high with a popularity rating of 64 per cent. Fianna Fail has added a point to 42 per cent. And satisfaction with the Government stands at 59 per cent. It's a comfortable position, provided the economy remains stable and no skeletons are unearthed by tribunals.
All the pressure is on the Opposition parties. They have to generate greater traction with the electorate. Michael Noonan may risk a by-election to do that and have a shot at government.
Denis Coghlan is Chief Political Correspondent of The Irish Times