The people of Northern Ireland will cast their votes in the general and local elections next Thursday and the future political landscape will be defined by the results. The contest for the election of 18 MPs in the House of Commons - and, to a lesser extent, more than 550 local councillors - will determine not just the leadership of unionism and nationalism but the balance of public opinion for the Belfast Agreement. Everything turns on the results.
The First Minister, Mr David Trimble, has taken the biggest personal risk in the elections with his decision to activate a post-dated letter of resignation if there is no progress on the decommissioning of IRA arms by July 1st. His leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party, which currently holds nine of the 13 outgoing unionist seats, is on the line. So too is the balance of power between pro- and anti-agreement factions in the party and in the unionist community at large.
Mr Trimble's fate will signify whether there is a majority in the unionist community for implementing the most problematic aspects of the agreement. Victory or defeat could hang on the outcome of one or two constituencies. In the poorest constituency of North Belfast, the outgoing MP, Mr Cecil Walker, could be under threat from Mr Nigel Dodds of the DUP; Mrs Iris Robinson of the DUP could take Mr John Taylor's old seat; and it is conceivable that the outgoing anti-agreement MP, Mr William Ross, could lose to the DUP's Mr Gregory Campbell in East Londonderry.
For all that, there is speculation that Lady Sylvia Hermon, who is staunchly pro-agreement, could win a seat in North Down from Mr Robert McCartney of the UK Unionist Party, helped by the Alliance Party's withdrawal. And the unsuccessful by-election candidate, Mr David Burnside, is putting up a strong contest to the DUP's Rev William McCrea MP in South Antrim.
The whole focus of the nationalist/republican leadership in Northern Ireland will rest on the result in West Tyrone. This is the SDLP's Stalingrad. The party enters the election with three Westminster seats compared to two for Sinn Fein. The Minister for Agriculture, Mrs Brid Rodgers - who has impressed universally with her handling of the foot-and-mouth crisis - is pitched against Sinn Fein's vice-president, Mr Pat Doherty, in one of the fiercest inter-party battles, with reports in recent days of intimidation of SDLP canvassers by Sinn Fein. She is hoping to win the seat of UUP anti-agreement MP, Mr William Thompson.
One way or another, the elections next week will determine the shape of politics in Northern Ireland for the foreseeable future. The results will have immediate implications for the leadership of Mr Trimble. They will also have a direct impact on the prospects for resolving the most intractable problems besetting the agreement - demilitarisation, policing and decommissioning. Plans are already in train for the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, to meet the Northern Secretary, Mr John Reid, after the poll to begin an intensive round of discussions to address these issues. The focus will remain on Sinn Fein to persuade the IRA to honour its obligations to put arms verifiably "beyond use".
There are straws in the wind. An opinion poll in The Belfast Telegraph last week showed increased support for the agreement within the unionist community. The DUP softened its position two days ago with the seven principles to be applied in the post-election period. Its first objective is devolution and "working for a democratic, fair and accountable Assembly". The third inspection of IRA arms dumps, announced yesterday, is welcome, for all that it falls well short of the republican movement's obligations under the Agreement. It is to be hoped that the voters will look beyond factional interest towards the broad political future next Thursday. A vote for any of the moderate parties, but especially for the UUP and the SDLP in the key contests, is the best mandate for the survival of the Belfast Agreement.