The agreement reached between the United States and Russia yesterday on reducing their nuclear arsenals reflects the balance of power between them. It must be seen in the context of the forthcoming agreement between NATO and Russia on new consultative mechanisms, the summit later this month between Presidents Bush and Putin in Moscow, and the NATO summit in Prague next autumn which will decide whether the alliance will enlarge to take in up to seven former Warsaw Pact states.
According to yesterday's agreement nuclear warheads will be reduced to about one third of their current numbers, totalling up to 2,000 on each side. That is a significant contribution to bilateral and therefore to world security. Some of the conditions attached make this less credible, however. Thus the US is not to destroy all the redundant weapons, as sought by the Russians, but will store a large proportion of them, as the Pentagon lobby demanded. There is no agreement on the question of missile defence, to which Mr Bush is fully committed following US withdrawal from the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty. Nor does this pact clarify how the US intends to develop its nuclear policy against non-nuclear states or the use of battlefield nuclear weapons signalled in the Pentagon's new Nuclear Posture Review adopted last January.
Such issues will be discussed further at forthcoming meetings and as an ongoing agenda. Next week in Reykjavik NATO foreign ministers will complete preparations for setting up a new NATO-Russia Council, intended to bring relations to a new level. It will deal with such questions as international terrorism and their mutual arms profile. The Pentagon successfully lobbied against giving Russia a veto in this new forum on NATO enlargement, which will be decided by the alliance in the autumn. The Russians still oppose NATO membership for the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It is important that they should have a forum to explain their objections.
These new agreements signify a potential new relationship between Russia and its erstwhile antagonists. As President Bush said yesterday, they put an end to the legacy of the Cold War. All the more reason, therefore, that the new relationship should be based on equality and respect, rather than the unequal resources which currently characterise them.
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