The International Atomic Energy Agency, an arm of the United Nations, will today in all probability decide to refer Iran to the UN Security Council, the supreme governing body of he world organisation. The move will represent another phase in the stop/go minuet between Iran and much of the rest of the world over the evident determination of Tehran to develop a nuclear capability.
In the face of a request from the council itself, the IAEA has little choice but to effect the referral; a refusal would beg questions about the agency's very raison d'etre. The council's move is supported by its five big (nuclear) power permanent members - the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. There are no grounds for accusing these powers, nor indeed the European Union, of rushing to judgment on Tehran, however.
Concern over Iranian intentions are long-standing. For 18 years, until 2003, Iran concealed nuclear activities from the IAEA. Since then, several intermediaries, notably the EU, have tried to persuade the Iranians to be verifiably open about their intentions, but this diplomacy has not proved successful. Last September, the agency declared Iran non-compliant with commitments as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but put off referring it to the Security Council. And last month, seals placed on equipment and installations by the IAEA (in agreement with Iran) were removed, ending a 2½-year moratorium on atomic development activity agreed with three leading EU intermediaries.
The imminent referral does not presage speedy action of any other kind against Tehran, however. Big five unanimity was achieved on the basis of a slowly, slowly approach which remains, for the moment, a prudent choice. While Iran will be referred to the Security Council, the council will not consider the situation until after IAEA head Dr Mohamed ElBaradei's next report to the agency, and that will not be until March 6th.
There is thus time for further diplomacy, which will need to be imaginative if it is to bear fruit. Trust is at the heart of the problem: it is difficult (to put it mildly) for much of the rest of the world to remain sanguine about the prospect of a fundamentalist theocracy, whose head of state advocates wiping Israel off the map and who questions the reality of the Holocaust, obtaining the wherewithal to make nuclear bombs. But a breathing space for diplomacy would allow Russia and Iran to work on Moscow's potentially promising offer to purify uranium for Tehran, a joint venture aimed at preventing diversion of nuclear fuel to bomb-making. Negotiations on this compromise start on February 16th.