ANALYSIS:The Taoiseach seized the initiative with his motion of confidence, confronting Martin with a difficult choice, writes HARRY McGEE
TONIGHT’S MEETING of Fianna Fáil TDS will be the fifth time in the 83-year history of the party that a leader has faced a challenge to his position.
All have happened in the modern era of the party – the first was in 1982 – and all other four revolved around the ever-controversial leadership of Charles J Haughey.
Tonight’s vote to decide on the continuing leadership of Brian Cowen will be unusual in several respects. In the first instance, it will be the first time that the parliamentary party will deal with a motion of confidence put down by its leader, as opposed to a motion of no confidence tabled by at least 25 per cent of its TDs.
The other unusual aspect is that it will be by secret ballot. This, however, is not unique. The third heave against Haughey in February 1983 was conducted by secret ballot despite being opposed by his camp.
His opponents forced a show of hands on voting by secret ballot which they won. Most commentators expected Haughey to fall in the subsequent secret vote. But to widespread surprise, he survived by a margin of seven votes – 40 to 33.
The decision by Cowen to take the initiative and table the motion of confidence in his own leadership – and to allow the vote be conducted in secret – has demonstrated his huge confidence that the majority of the party’s 71 TDs is behind his leadership.
His supporters have also said he readily agreed to ensure that the playing surface for the tussle was as even as possible because of an almost obsessive desire to prove his wherewithal and his integrity – to show that whatever other criticisms people have made about his time as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil, they could not say he was dishonest, tainted or duplicitous.
The Taoiseach looked like a beaten docket last Thursday morning after he was told the middle ground of the party had shifted following a series of dismal opinion polls and the revelations about his previously undisclosed contacts with Seán FitzPatrick.
But a ring-around of cautious and middle-of-the-road TDs and junior ministers by his closest associates – including Batt O’Keeffe, Michael Finneran and John Curran – convinced them that the theory needed to be tested. Cowen rallied two hours before the meeting to assert he would “not be railroaded out of office”.
And so began what was branded as a period of consultation but was in reality the beginning of the battle for the party’s heart and soul.
Senior figures who no longer supported Cowen – principally Micheál Martin and Mary Hanafin — were convinced that once he heard at first-hand from his own TDs about the bleak landscape, he would not have any choice but to go.
It is clear that the lessons from Fine Gael’s failed leadership heave last June have not been lost on Cowen nor on his allies in the subsequent days. The consultation allowed Cowen to assess not only mood but to count heads, to use his experience to know if TDs were truly for or against his leadership.
For sure, the analysis was bleak but the views of TDs were more nuanced than that. Many thought it was too late to change the leadership. There were also strong views that a separate Taoiseach and party leader was too confusing for voters and would be hard to sell.
And TDs wondered aloud as to whether a change of leadership would indeed make any difference to the party’s prospects. There were also those TDs (the likes of Johnny Brady from Meath West) who cleaved to the residual Fianna Fáil tradition where the leader should never be challenged.
It was a two-way street too. Cowen also had the opportunity to canvass and to set out his stall and defend his leadership. Martin, his main rival, also began ringing around on Friday and Saturday. But it was clear by then that the Taoiseach had stolen a march.
Cowen’s decision to table a confidence motion in himself seems to follow the template adopted by Enda Kenny in June 2010. It essentially prevents the incumbent being backfooted by a no confidence motion that could arrive at any time. But there was strong evidence last weekend that those who wished to mount a challenge to Cowen were not in a position to muster the 18 signatures necessary. In some ways, the narrative was beginning to have an inevitable conclusion – yet another failed heave.
The incumbent’s position looked even stronger following a very impressive press conference on Sunday. And when Martin finally showed his hand – and announced he would not support the motion – his media appearance was a little chaotic and shambolic. When he disclosed that Cowen had refused to accept his resignation, that didn’t play well, although there was a logical reason for it (a string of Ministers resigning or being sacked could have precipitated a withdrawal of support from the Greens or Independents).
An extensive survey of TDs conducted by The Irish Times through yesterday showed that 35 have declared publicly they will vote in favour of Cowen, with some 12 saying openly they will vote against.
The two key players in this are two senior Ministers, both with ambitions for the leadership. Mary Hanafin is thought to want a change of leadership but has not made public her view. Brian Lenihan will state his position at lunchtime today.
The Cowen camp believes he will support the Taoiseach and in a sense will sway the contest definitively in his favour. Other than Willie O’Dea and Billy Kelleher, no major party figure has emerged to swing their weight behind Martin or against Cowen.
As of last night, it seemed the momentum was very much behind the incumbent. But to that must be added the qualifier that the secret ballot has a habit of making some earnest public declarations null and void when it comes to marking a ballot paper.
In a sense, Martin faced a Hobson’s choice as the matter came to a head on Sunday afternoon. If Cowen wins out tonight, he will have lost by declaring and may have jeopardised a future bid for the leadership. But there was a feeling that given his reputation for being indecisive, he would have lost out even more had he not put his head above the parapet this time.
As of last night, far more TDs had publicly declared for Cowen than against him, with some of Cowen’s supporters predicting that the opponents would number 20 or less. That said, the perils of the secret ballot could result in a closer outcome, given that there is a deep reservoir of unhappiness with Cowen’s performance.
That said, it has just looked too hard for Micheál Martin and others to overcome the biggest obstacle to the challenge – the pervasive sense shared by so many TDs that it has all come much too late to make any tangible difference.
Harry McGee is Political Correspondent