BARACK OBAMA has won a famous victory in securing the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election. His message of hope and change, his powerful oratory, attractive personality and strong organisational abilities gave him the victory over Hillary Clinton. The nomination was hers to lose and she lost it, as she acknowledged in her weekend speech, paying tribute to Mr Obama's grace, grit and energy and looking forward to his victory over John McCain in November. Attention now shifts to that real contest. It could be much closer than many expect.
On the face of it Mr Obama has many advantages at this stage of the campaign. There is a genuine popular mood for change among the electorate, the economy is in recession, the US has lost prestige and influence around the world and approval of President Bush's administration is unprecedently low. In addition the extraordinary intensity of effort and argument in the Democratic primaries has mobilised the party's activists and voters far more than on the Republican side, which gives the Democrats a head start if they can maintain party unity. Mr Obama's own specific political and organisational talents are well placed to take advantage of these facts, as is his appeal to independent and cross-party support.
Why then does Mr McCain consistently poll so closely against him? Mr McCain's greater political, foreign policy and military experience is one factor. Mr Obama's record is much shorter, less accomplished and less detailed and will now come under forensic scrutiny. It is also more liberal than many realise, as he has tacked to the centre in order to gain support. All of this gives ample opportunity for right-wing political and media campaigning in the next five months. Mr McCain, too, is well able to appeal beyond his Republican base on these issues, even if the objective economic and political circumstances appear stacked against him.
Race and class play directly into this calculus of comparative advantage and appeal. Mr Obama is the first black man to win a presidential nomination contest and his victory puts that fact at the centre of US politics in historic fashion. His colour was a genuine factor in the Democratic contest, as its demographics make clear. After his crucial victory in the Iowa caucuses where he demonstrated he could win an overwhelmingly white state, black voters elsewhere switched overwhelmingly to him. Mrs Clinton's appeal to the white working class and older women became distinctive compared to his lead among younger and better-educated Democrats. Mr Obama must harness these Clinton constituencies if he is to win; but Mr McCain will exploit any failure to do so, or resulting tension in keeping the Democratic coalition together - and he will be continually tempted to introduce race issues subliminally or explicitly.
This therefore promises to be just as dramatic a presidential campaign as the Democratic one. Mr Obama is attracting worldwide attention precisely because of his inspirational appeal and the prospect that this could determine US policy in coming years. He has now to win the real contest against Mr McCain.