The postponement of Government plans to privatise bus routes in Dublin, as announced by the Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey at the weekend, should not surprise anyone.
There are sound pragmatic reasons for it. But it also reflects what has become a near-automatic response by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to trade union militancy and threats of industrial disruption.
Government failure to confront vested interests within Dublin Bus has delayed reform for the best part of a decade and damaged the reputations of successive ministers for transport. Seamus Brennan was removed from the job in 2004 after he had pledged to privatise one-quarter of the city's bus routes. Martin Cullen was ousted in 2006 even though he had reduced this figure to 15 per cent. During that period, no new buses were purchased. Now, Mr Dempsey has put the entire project on hold.
The Minister's decision coincides with two important developments. Legislation providing for the appointment of a Dublin Transportation Authority is due to come before the Dáil, following interminable delays. And the process of digging up the centre of Dublin to facilitate a new metro and Luas connector line is scheduled to start next year. Already, Dublin City Council is preparing contingency plans to ensure business does not come to a standstill during those excavations and is seeking the co-operation of Dublin Bus. An active privatisation process would not help in those circumstances.
Shelving the plans, on the other hand, may reduce trade union resistance to the establishment of a Dublin Transportation Authority. And local elections are due in 2009.
The change in approach signalled by Mr Dempsey coincides with a decision by the Oireachtas Committee on Transport to seek submissions from bus commuters and other interested parties on the development of a reliable and efficient bus network within Dublin and from commuting towns. That committee is also reviewing the introduction of "congestion charges" as a means of keeping private motorists out of the city centre. Final decisions in these contentious matters may be off-loaded to the proposed Dublin Transportation Authority whose duties will include regulation of the bus market and the allocation of public subsidies for bus services. In order to fulfil those functions, the DTA is expected to demand that Dublin Bus identify profitable and loss-making routes, something it has refused to do up to now.
The tactical shift by the Minister is likely to minimise disruption to public transport and the commuting public; facilitate the passage of legislation and prepare the ground for an unfavourable EU ruling on public subsidies and competition. It makes sense.