OPINIONCantering through eastern Europe last week, Bertie Ahern seemed relaxed. Don't write him off yet, writes Deaglán De Bréadún
IT WAS Enoch Powell who famously said all political careers end in failure. It was certainly true in his case. Powell was a brilliant if erratic British politician who, like Marlon Brando's washed-up prizefighter in On the Waterfront, "cudda been a contender" for leadership of the Tory party and No 10, Downing Street. But he destroyed his chances with an incendiary speech on immigration during which he said: "Like the Roman, I seem to see 'the river Tiber foaming with much blood'."
Incendiary remarks are not Bertie Ahern's style. Part of his appeal to voters, up to now, is that he seems to be their political reflection: the epitome of the ordinary man. Bertie is one of us.
There is a game where you sum up someone's life in six words. Take Hamlet: "Sees ghost; dithers; avenges father's death." Or Abraham Lincoln: "Freed slaves; won civil war; shot." In Bertie's case it could be: "Brought peace; fell foul over finances."
Having spent last week in close proximity to the Taoiseach as he made his way from Ljubljana through Vienna to Warsaw on official visits, I am in a good position to report on his mood.
John Major tells a story about asking Boris Yeltsin to sum up the Russian situation in one word. The answer was: "Good." When Major asked him to sum it up in two words, Yeltsin replied: "Not good." Likewise, Ahern's mood is surprisingly good, although his political situation could hardly be described as favourable.
Ahern is not a standoffish type and is quite happy to sit at breakfast with the media or have a pint with reporters last thing at night. He is chatty and relaxed, but prefers to talk about sport rather than politics. Being Bertie, he doesn't give much away.
During our trip, Bertie caused a minor sensation when he indicated that he may stay in office until 2012 rather than stepping down in September 2011, when he reaches 60. But despite his apparent simplicity, his utterances can be quite subtle.
Ahern did not state definitively that he intended to remain in office until 2012. What he said was: "My mandate expires in May or June 2012." That's when the Government's term of office is due to end. When he was pursued further and asked, "So you will be there till 2012?" he replied: "That's when my mandate runs out." He then pointed out that he would still be 60 for most of 2012: "You're not just 60 for a day."
When asked if he were staying until 2012, he could have simply said "yes". That would have been the man-of-the-people response. But instead he pointed out that he had a mandate for the next four years. It's not the same thing: Bertie always leaves you guessing.
Ahern's name has featured in speculation about the position of European Council president. If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, the post will no longer rotate among member states, but will be filled on a long-term basis. Tony Blair and Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker have also been linked with the job.
Associates say Ahern is a "home bird". He would not be comfortable in Brussels and finds Euro-jargon hard to take. But the council presidency would be less restrictive than the commission. It could be up for grabs in summer 2009, after European and local elections. If Fianna Fáil polled poorly and Blair was ruled out because of his Iraq war role, it could be Bertie's big moment. The one certainty is he'll keep us guessing until the last minute.
Deaglán de Bréadún is political correspondent for The Irish Times