Geraldine Kennedy, Political Editor, assesses the current state ofplay and the most likely outcome as the election campaign enters its lastfour days with Fianna Fail seemingly unstoppable
Barring a shift of monumental proportions over the next few days, the choice before voters next Friday will be what kind of Fianna Fáil-led government they want. There is little prospect of a Fine Gael-led alternative.
The trends in all of the opinion polls, including MRBI in The Irish Times, would have to turn on their heads, post-haste, for a Rainbow government of Fine Gael, Labour, the Green Party and a number of Independents to become a possibility.
Quality of life issues, like the health service and childcare, would have to take precedence over the smug mé-féinism bred in the Celtic Tiger to make that happen in the next four days. And, even then, Fianna Fáil has successfully fostered the perception in the public mind that its stewardship of the public finances in troubled times ahead could be at least as good as the disjointed manifestos of the Opposition parties.
It is only now, at the 11th hour, that the Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan, has begun to concentrate on the real issues affecting those most likely to vote in Friday's election - the black hole in taxation receipts, the underlying poor state of the public finances and how they could curtail the romp of the Celtic Tiger in the future.
For these issues, which play in to the Fianna Fáil agenda, seem to capture the mood of the people better than the opt-professed priority of health in opinion polls for more than two years. There is an apparent acceptance that health and infrastructure - the big failures of the outgoing Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition - will be dealt with by the next administration.
The Fianna Fáil campaign strategy - A lot done. More to Do - has succeeded beyond the party's wildest expectations. It seems set to allow the party to move seamlessly from one government into another, with the election only registering as a blip in the passage.
That was clearly the intent of Fianna Fáil strategists with the production of a manifesto of few promises, with the exception of the much-hailed National Development Agency.
Fine Gael, on the other hand, mis-read the feel-good factor with its manifesto promising goodies for different segments of the electorate. It adopted an old-fashioned strategy with promises to Eircom share-holders and tax concessions to the under-40s in different household situations. Its manifesto completely misjudged the cautious, albeit self-centred, mood of those most likely to vote to hold on to what they have in an uncertain future.
In the aftermath of the Celtic Tiger, there would have been some chance of appealing to a sense of social justice if their leader was connecting with the electorate. But, in circumstances where Mr Noonan has the lowest rating of all party leaders, that never happened. Fine Gael never managed to lead the debate. In fact, more often than not, there was no set subject for their morning press conferences.
The Labour Party has fought a good campaign as an independent party but never once managed to sell the concept of combining with Fine Gael as a credible alternative reality. Their strategists are now hailing the wisdom of their leader, Mr Ruairí Quinn, not to enter into a pre-election pact with Fine Gael. That may be so. But the decision to keep their options open could yet prove to be a freedom to remain in opposition for another five years.
Barring a major event, therefore, Fianna Fáil seems set to lead the next government after the election on Friday. The real choice for voters who are interested in having an influence on the formation of the next government is whether Fianna Fáil will rule on its own in a majority or minority single-party government, in coalition with another party, with or without Independents.
Opinion poll research would suggest that 40 per cent of those eligible to vote have no interest in politics; about 35 per cent didn't turn out in 1997. Some 60 per cent of those who turn out will probably vote for the main parties.
The national polls in this campaign predict that Fianna Fáil will get between 43 per cent (ICM in Ireland on Sunday) and 51 per cent (IMS in the Sunday Independent) of the first-preference vote. Most of the polls, including MRBI in The Irish Times, put the party within striking distance of an overall majority of 84 seats. That is the decision of voters.
The warnings from its outgoing partners, the PDs, and Fine Gael, about the dangers of single-party government could have some effect in the campaign. Fianna Fáil will have a good election but it remains to be seen whether it can command an overall majority. The more likely scenario is that it will get around 80 seats.
Fianna Fáil's best number-cruncher, Mr Charlie McCreevy, has frequently asked where will the party win a majority of seats in the 42 constituencies. He has a point. The party got a 12-seat bonus in 1997 with only 39.33 per cent of the first-preference vote.
However, there are two reasons why Fianna Fáil would not need to be getting over 50 per cent of the first-preference vote to be close to a majority. First, the party is likely to receive more transfers than ever before. Second, the ratio of seats to votes traditionally helps the largest party.
For all that, it would appear that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will have all of the cards in his hand for the formation of the next government. He will be cautious. He would not be the man he is if he did not go for the safest, longest-lasting option.