With just a month to go until the start of all-party talks in Belfast, here are two key questions for Bertie Ahern. Can he persuade Ray Burke to resign his part in the peace process and John Hume to stay on the team?
Let us be clear about what is at stake here. These negotiations are arguably the most important in which representatives of Irish nationalism have been involved since Michael Collins and Arthur Griffith travelled to London in l921. The objective is to make good the shortcomings of the Treaty of Independence, when the interests of the nationalist minority in the North were sacrificed in order to secure the independence of this State.
If the talks succeed - and I would respectfully suggest that there should be prayers in all churches on Sunday, September l4th - the resulting settlement will not only enable both communities in the North to live at ease with each other, but will redefine the relationships between the two parts of Ireland and between this island and Britain.
I apologise if it seems a tad patronising to spell it out, but there is little evidence of keen anticipation, let alone preparation, in the body politic. On the contrary, there is a widespread sense that peace has been secured the second time around and we are all now safely on course for a happy ending.
I may have contributed to it myself, for it is true that the political atmosphere in Northern Ireland has improved dramatically in the l00 days since Tony Blair came to power in Britain and made it clear that he was serious about the peace process. The guns have been silenced and that is immensely important. But the challenge of negotiating terms to secure the peace lies ahead, just as it did for Collins and his comrades in 1921.
It is a time when all parties at the talks must want to put forward what W.T. Cosgrave described as their "best players". The interests of this State, and of nationalists in the North, need to be represented by negotiators who combine a high degree of political skill with a proven record of honest dealing which commands the respect, if not necessarily the affection, of the other parties to the talks.
This is the more important because of the mistrust and fears with which the unionists approach these talks. The British government, quite reasonably from its point of view, will want to make the minimum concessions compatible with securing a settlement.
Is Ray Burke our best player? There have been many times, particularly in recent years, when the diplomatic skills of the Department of Foreign Affairs and the calibre of the minister at its head have kept hope alive that it is possible to achieve change through politics, rather than violence.
Now, at a crucial juncture in the whole process, it seems that the Government's delegation will be headed by a Minister whose personal and political probity have been called into question. Serious allegations have been made that Mr Burke has accepted substantial sums of money as "political contributions" and that these have not been adequately accounted for.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs has emphatically denied that he has done anything "illegal, improper or unethical". He has said that he will do everything necessary to defend his good name, as he is perfectly entitled to do.
But the story will not go away. The opposition parties are determined to pursue it and will have the opportunity when the McCracken report is debated in the Dail just at the time, unfortunately, when Ray Burke should be giving his undivided attention to the negotiations in Belfast. We can expect the British - and the Northern media - to be full of reports about the Minister's affairs and speculation about his political future. He himself will, presumably, be preoccupied with these matters.
This may be unfair, but it is the nature of politics. The Government will be a key player in these talks. Unlike the political parties in the North, it will be dealing with the British as a sovereign equal State attempting to solve a serious political problem in which both share a legitimate interest. That is a right, negotiated with great skill and determination by a previous Irish government, which is recognised in every document since the Anglo-Irish Agreement of l985.
It puts a very heavy onus on Bertie Ahern to ensure that those who represent the Government of this State are not only the most subtle negotiators, but are seen to be above reproach. If he has any doubts that Ray Burke will be in a position to devote himself single-mindedly to the task, then he should not hesitate to ask him to resign, or have an autumn Cabinet reshuffle which gives responsibility for the Foreign Affairs job to someone better suited to handling the Northern peace process.
There is another personality factor which is hugely important to hopes for a durable settlement, and that is the continuing involvement of John Hume. There has been much media speculation, for and against, the proposal that he become President of this State. I have known him for far too long, and value him too highly, to be objective about his candidacy. What people say about his courage and his unswerving commitment to the democratic process are true, but this is not an obituary and I do not propose to draw up a list of his virtues - or his faults.
What is important, indeed crucial, just now is that John Hume has political cunning, guts and a vision which, over and over again in the past 30 years, have rescued the situation in the North from spiralling into utter despair.
Often, watching him brooding in silence, one has known that he is working out some new strategy to take an apparently hopeless situation forward. He has an unrivalled ability to foresee - and if necessary block - the manoeuvres of an opponent. These are gifts which have often made him unpopular, even with his own supporters, but we can ill-afford to lose them.
He also understands the limits of what is possible in the battered and mistrustful context of the North and how any settlement will have to be sold to both communities. If Tuesday's TV debate between Martin McGuinness and Ken Maginnis served any useful purpose, it was to demonstrate the gulf that exists between the major protagonists.
The unionists have shown some courage, but their community is desperately frightened about the future. Sinn Fein has no idea about how to reassure them, and quite probably no desire to do so. Parading Martin Ferris, and to a lesser extent Caoimghin O Caolain, around Belfast may reassure the IRA but could have been deliberately designed to frighten the unionists.
These talks are going to be very difficult. Negotiating a settlement which commands the support of both communities in this island is something we have not yet achieved. The prize of a lasting peace is something we have hardly dared to imagine, but to win it we are going to need our best players, and only our best players, in the ring.