The Government is recovering, and the alternative coalition is running out of time writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
For the second year running, the Government, Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil are enjoying a significant post-Budget boost in support.
Last year's increases ebbed away as the year passed. Now, in this pre-election year, there will be a relentless political contest for those floating voters who have moved back and forth between the options since then.
The previous opinion poll in this series came last September, after a period of relentlessly bad media coverage for the Government - most notably from the Rip-off Republic television programme. Satisfaction with the Taoiseach and Government fell significantly, and Fianna Fáil and PD support languished well short of what would be required if they are to retain office in 2007.
Since then, the Government has responded with the long-awaited abolition of the Groceries Order, a move designed to bring down prices. It has worked to counter criticisms that it is wasteful of public money, and that its tax policies favour the wealthy. This latest poll also comes after a well-received Budget in December which was sold as making a significant start on dealing with one of the most pressing voter issues: childcare. It began the phasing out of some controversial tax reliefs, and increased the standard rate tax band by 9 per cent.
And in recent weeks the Tánaiste has been seen to attempt resolute action to produce healthcare reform through pushing for a new consultants' contract, obstacles to new social partnership talks have been removed, and heavy advertising about what to do with your SSIA money has reminded 1.175 million account holders of goodies shortly to come.
One cannot say for certain which, if any, of these issues has caused the revival in the Government's fortunes, or whether they have all combined to do so. But in India this morning, the Taoiseach will take pleasure in these findings. While Fianna Fáil and the PDs are still well short of what they would need to return to office together for a third consecutive term, the prospect no longer seems completely unrealistic. And for Fianna Fáil itself, the failure of the possible alternative coalition to make any progress means Mr Ahern's party can have high hopes of a return to power in some other combination if the current Government falls short.
As always, the slight fall in PD support from 4 per cent to 3 per cent is entirely insignificant. What matters for smaller parties is how individual TDs and candidates perform in a small number of key constituencies.
Nationally, the Tánaiste, Mary Harney, retains by far the highest dissatisfaction rating at 52 per cent. However, her satisfaction rating at 39 per cent remains respectable enough. The key to her ratings is the number with no opinion, which at 9 per cent is far lower than for any other leader. The explanation is that Ms Harney has a high profile, particularly on health reform. There are few neutrals on her performance: people either approve or disapprove quite strongly, a good position for the leader of a small niche party.
For the parties putting forward the prospect of an alternative coalition the news is grim, although there is some comfort for Labour. For Fine Gael, the slip of one percentage point to 24 per cent is not in itself of much significance. But for a party with a mountain to climb - in the form of the necessity to gain around 25 seats on top of its present 31 if it is to get back into government - the fact that it is not moving towards that target will be very disappointing. It remains just two percentage points above the 22 per cent it received in the 2002 general election and the subsequent opinion poll in February 2003.
The Labour leadership will be frustrated at the lack of progress for the alternative combination, but pleased with their own party's showing.
Again it is not possible to say with certainty what has brought about Labour's two-point rise to 16 per cent.
However, Pat Rabbitte's recent contention that immigrant labour was displacing Irish workers and that the reintroduction of work visas for workers from east European EU members should be considered, may well have struck a chord with some voters.
Labour now holds the level of public support that would allow it retain its current number of 21 Dáil seats - despite the impending retirement of four TDs - and possibly make some gains.
So far, the fears of the internal Labour opponents of Pat Rabbitte's electoral strategy - that an alliance with Fine Gael would benefit the larger party at the expense of Labour - are not being borne out.
The Green Party, like the PDs, are reliant on individual performances in key constituencies and to that extent their slip from 5 to 4 per cent support means little. Trevor Sargent continues to have the lowest satisfaction rating of all party leaders.
However, this is due less to any unusual dissatisfaction with his performance than to the fact that he has the highest "no opinion" rating of all party leaders.
This contrasts with the strong feelings Ms Harney attracts, but her higher approval and disapproval ratings owe a lot to the fact that she is in Government, and therefore making high-profile policy decisions and announcements.
Sinn Féin also marks time in this poll, dropping a marginal one point to 9 per cent and with Gerry Adams's rating virtually static. The fact that the continued steady rise of Sinn Féin has been arrested, at least temporarily, will come as a relief to the more established Leinster House parties.
With perhaps 15 months to go before the next general election, the parties seeking to form an alternative government will be hoping for history to repeat itself and that the post-Budget boost for the Government will slip away.
But there is no reason for them to be confident about this.
There is no expectation that the economy will disimprove; the SSIA money is coming; the health services can hardly get worse and Ms Harney may yet be able to show some results for all her efforts before the next election.
In short, there is no obvious prospect of the current Coalition damaging itself. The alternative must come up with a Big Idea to grab the attention of voters if it is to turn things around.
The other fact emerging from this poll is that the voters collectively have not bought the idea that their only choice in the next contest is between the current Coalition and the self-declared alternative.
For if these figures were repeated in an election, the only stable government option available would be a Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition.
Indeed, this is the only stable option that could have emerged from the figures in every opinion poll since the 2002 general election.