Paisley and his party appear to be holding all the cards

The Democratic Unionist Party is either deliberately sending out negative messages to diplomatic and journalistic sources in …

The Democratic Unionist Party is either deliberately sending out negative messages to diplomatic and journalistic sources in Dublin, London and Belfast or it is being transparent when it says that it sees no real prospect of restoring the Northern Ireland Executive before November 24th.

Looking at it objectively one can see many reasons why waiting, at least for a while longer, before going into government with Sinn Féin would suit the DUP very well.

There exists in the more optimistic quarters of the Irish and British administrations a presumption that, if not Paisley himself, then at least his younger colleagues are motivated (as it is assumed all politicians are) by a desire to be in power and to run government departments. Even if this were the case - and since many of them already have full political lives as Westminster MPs - then for the DUP there are currently a number of negative aspects associated with restoring the powersharing executive which outweigh the attractions.

In accepting ministries themselves they would also be handing ministries to their political enemies.

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Not only would they be restoring Sinn Féin to government and thereby jumpstarting the republican movement's stalled political project, they would also be resuscitating the Ulster Unionist Party.

In the absence of the Assembly and devolved ministries, the DUP is the only unionist show in town. The Ulster Unionist Party gets only occasional attention, most of it negative, especially since Reg Empey embarked on the bizarre and now defunct strategy of engagement with David Ervine and the Progressive Unionist Party.

The governments are hoping that the threat to mothball the assembly after November 24th and cut off salaries to MLAs and their staffers will push the DUP towards devolution.

However, although it is the biggest party, the financial pain for the DUP would be relatively mild by comparison to that which other parties would have to endure.

The DUP is insulated by its cohort of nine Westminster MPs (and an MEP), their generous staffing allowances and the support it enjoys from substantial backers.

By comparison the paid political component of the Ulster Unionist Party would be decimated by the ending of assembly funding. This is an attractive prospect for that sector of the DUP for whom destroying the Ulster Unionist Party has been the primary objective.

For decades Paisley and his ilk have been derided and looked down on by the unionist establishment but now he is the unionist establishment. He sits on the privy council; his spouse has just been appointed to the House of Lords and it is he the prime minister calls.

In the endeavour to pressurise the DUP there have also been hints of greater "partnership" between the two governments, not only on cross-Border initiatives but also on internal Northern Ireland affairs.

However, an unspecified notion of increased partnership between the two governments is something which the DUP electorate can wear, at least for now.

It can certainly wear it much easier than the "in your face" reality of a Sinn Féin minister having responsibility for their schools, or their policing.

In any case the Dublin Government is no longer the bogeyman for unionism it once was and certainly not a Dublin government led by Bertie Ahern with Michael McDowell as Tánaiste.

Yesterday the governments again reiterated that unless devolution is restored soon, Northern Ireland politicians will exert no influence on significant policy decisions which are about to be made on things such as rate valuations, water charges, the abolition of the Eleven Plus exam and the establishment of new local councils.

However, much of the legislative basis for those decisions has already been put in place and the DUP's capacity to reverse or alter them in the Assembly or Executive would be very limited, not least because cross-community consent would be required.

There are advantages for them, therefore, in letting London appointed ministers continue to take the flak for the implementation of these unpopular policies while they remain free to continue to rail against them.

In October the Independent Monitoring Commission is likely to confirm that the IRA has not only decommissioned but has also wound down criminality. The DUP now says that this clean bill of health will no longer suffice and are insisting that simultaneously Sinn Féin kick-start the process of securing ardfheis approval for joining the Policing Board. There are some suggestions they may even require a period during which the Sinn Féin commitment to policing is confirmed by republican communities feeling free to openly co-operate with police investigations into crimes in their area.

DUP politicians must know that Sinn Féin cannot deliver on policing before devolution. The underlying suspicion has to be, therefore, that what the DUP is actually seeking to achieve is a further "decontamination period by stealth". One thing which may pressurise the DUP, to some extent, is the risk that if they don't agree a deal in November they could get more time than they bargained for.