A compromise agreement among the Palestinian leadership has this week opened the way towards a renewed peace process with Israel in the wake of the war in Iraq. Mr Yasser Arafat and the man he appointed as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, Mr Mahmoud Abbas, agreed on the make-up of a new cabinet to be ratified this weekend.
As a result the US government has become much more actively involved in the process, as Mr Colin Powell prepares to visit the Middle East next week. The US is now committed to publishing the road map drawn up with the United Nations, the European Union and Russia. It lays out a series of steps to be taken by both sides and a timetable to implement them over the next two years. In principle this could lead to the creation of a Palestinian state if all parties adhere to the agreement - a difficult but not an impossible condition and certainly a hopeful one.
Interpretations differ in Israeli and Palestinian media as to whether these developments represent the end of Mr Arafat's domination of Palestinian affairs or yet another successful adaptation by him to changed circumstances. The Sharon government enjoyed President Bush's support over the last year for its policy of opposing Mr Arafat and seeking to marginalise him within the Palestinian leadership. Only thus would its support for violent resistance to Israeli occupation be changed, they believed. Mr Bush refused to publish the road map before this was done. Mr Abbas is on record as opposing the violence and has appointed people determined to confront and control those responsible for it. Mr Arafat has had to accept their place in the cabinet line-up; but he retains an overall authority over the peace process as a whole - and he retains his popularity.
Only time will tell whether this shift within the Palestinian leadership is capable of unlocking the potential for a more dynamic set of negotiations on a Middle East peace. The crucial determinants of a successful process are to be found as much elsewhere as in their ranks. A great deal will depend on how determined President Bush is prepared to be in coming months. Will he put the necessary pressure on Mr Sharon to ensure Israel implements its part of the road map? Will he be willing to take on inevitable opposition to that from influential elements of his own administration going into a presidential election year? How prepared will he be to work with the UN, the EU and Russia given his reluctance to enter multilateral negotiations in other spheres? How these questions are answered will determine the outcome of this latest peace initiative.