The scale of the journey that British voters may have to climb in coming weeks was visible during Thursday night's final TV public questioning of David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Pause for a moment, unusually, for a defence of politicians. Leaving the Leeds studio after the BBC Question Time debate, the trio could be forgiven for wondering what planet many of their fellow subjects are living on.
Howls of outrage emerged from some in the audience when they would not lay out their coalition options: the public would trust them if they did and regard them as liars if they did not, the audience declared with varying degrees of temper. Exactly what they believe politicians should do is another thing. Politics is determined by numbers; nothing else. For shorthand, let it be called “the Miwadi Test” after the well-known Irish cordial, or “the Squash Test” for British readers.
The Conservatives will face one set of difficulties if they end up with 315, or 320 seats out of 650, leaving them in the position of forming an administration with the Democratic Unionist Party.
However, they will be quite another position if their support is diluted downwards to 280 seats, still short of a majority even if they manage to strike a deal with a much-reduced Liberal Democrats.
Labour leader, Ed Milband, meanwhile, has no choice but to push for his own majority and reject the Scottish National Party’s declarations that he will have no choice but to deal with them.
He added: “I’m not going to sacrifice the future of our country, the unity of our country, I’m not going to give in to SNP demands around Trident, around the deficit or anything like that.”
But he will be in quite another position if he heads in the direction of 300 seats leaving him in position to form an administration – minority, or otherwise – with Nick Clegg’s wounded ranks.
If the British public wants majority government, then it has to vote for it. If not, then it cannot legitimately expect politicians to answers questions that the public itself has yet to answer.
Speaking within the hour, the Scottish National Party leader, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon responded to Miliband’s declarations that he would not take up the mantle of power if the price “is a deal” with the SNP.
“I heard Ed Miliband and he sounded awfully like he was saying, and I hope that I am wrong about this because I think people across Scotland and much of the UK will be appalled if I am right, he sounded as if he was saying that he would rather see David Cameron and the Conservatives back in government than actually work with the SNP. Now, if he means that then I don’t think people in Scotland will ever forgive Labour for allowing the Conservatives back into office,” she said.
The positions both are outlining are largely nonsense: Miliband may avoid being able to do a deal with the SNP to get into Downing Street but he will need to do a thousand deals with them if he is to stay there, if the numbers work out that way.
On the other hand, Sturgeon’s declaration that Labour would never be forgiven if it fails to lock the Conservatives out of power – if the numbers allow that to happen – is more tosh, since the implication is that Labour would vote for the Conservatives, or abstain on a vote of no confidence is not going to happen either.
Today (Friday), Miliband will travel to Glasgow where he will evoke the names of Labour’s Scottish founder Keir Hardie and later Labour giants, John Smith and Donald Dewar, and ask Scots who their parents and grandparents would want to lead the country.
The United Kingdom is within striking distance of electing a Labour government, he will declare: “Nationalism never built a school. It never lifted people out of poverty. It never created a welfare state that healed the sick and protected our most vulnerable. It is Labour values, Labour ideas and the determination of people across Scotland that has built this country to what it is today.” Meanwhile, Sturgeon, opening the final week of the campaign, will make campaign stops in East Lothian, Dundee and Fife on Friday as she takes the SNP’s message to voters.
Labour is praying that some support can be won back in the final days in the face of opinion polls which now suggest that the SNP could win all 59 of Scotland’s House of Commons seats.
On Thursday, Sturgeon failed to rule out putting a commitment to hold another referendum on independence in the SNP manifesto for the Scottish Parliament election next year, even though Scots were told last year that a referendum was a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Seizing upon her remarks, the Scottish Liberal Democrats leader, Willie Rennie said: “The SNP wants to borrow even more than Labour whilst plunging Scotland into neverendum. People will be staggered that Nicola Sturgeon once again refused to set out when she plans to put forward a second referendum. If people want to stop the SNP from veering the country away from the economic centre ground, they must vote Liberals Democrats in each of our 11 held seats,” he declared.
Mark Hennessy is London Editor, reporting from Glasgow