ANALYSIS:The SDLP leader is under pressure to keep party relevant, writes
GERRY MORIARTY
SDLP DELEGATES had reasons to be cheerful at their annual conference in Belfast at the weekend - but reasons to be fearful too.
In particular the party had an excuse to again celebrate its past, to bask in the glow of being one of the chief architects of the peace process - a fact made all the more resonant by Miriam O'Callaghan's appearance to confer the accolade of Ireland's Greatest on John Hume.
The Nobel Laureate was of healthy and cheerful countenance as he received his award. His wife Pat and fellow delegates proudly looked on. It was a nice moment for the Humes and the party. It was an honour all the more gratifying because it resulted from a big RTÉ poll of the Irish people who have not forgotten John Hume. But SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie has a more critical poll to consider. She is facing into the most daunting six months of her political career. The future of the SDLP as a significant force in Northern Ireland politics is on the line.
How the party fares in the Assembly and local elections on May 5th will determine the party's standing. As one senior strategist conceded, after polling day the SDLP could have 20 Assembly seats - or it could have 12. At present it has 16 seats and anything above that would be a boon. Should the party win more seats than the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the SDLP's representation in the Northern Executive would almost certainly increase from one ministry - Alex Attwood as Minister of Social Development - to two. (Currently, the UUP has the advantage with two ministers.) That would be a triumph for Ritchie who took over as leader in February.
But if the SDLP drops below 16 seats the prospect of Northern Ireland as an effective two-party state run by the DUP and Sinn Féin looms closer. It's already a DUP-Sinn Féin driven state - the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists, who have their own problems, must hold their pride and their political place to prevent the virtual full capitulation to Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness.
In May the SDLP could lose seats in South Antrim, North Antrim, Upper Bann and West Belfast. Equally it could hold these seats and take additional seats in West Tyrone, Strangford, East Antrim and South Down.
The pressure is on. At the very least, she must hold the line. The public element of the conference over Friday and Saturday were not the days to focus on the minutiae of next May's cliffhanger constituency battles but it was a time for Ritchie to more generally prime party stalwarts for the do-or-die struggle that is imminent. There was some sense of that preparation but also a lingering suspicion that delegates aren't quite tuned in to the huge challenges facing them to keep the SDLP relevant.
Ritchie is not the most relaxed or mesmeric orator but delegates made allowances for that shortfall. Word in the hall and bar after the speech was that her first leader's conference speech was "strong and meaty" and, while it could have been more inspiring, "exceeded expectations".
There was serious, clear content and just a little knockabout. She majored on the SDLP as a centre-ground party that was distinct from the main opposition, Sinn Féin. She insisted the SDLP was knowledgeable on the economy, "genuine" on tackling sectarianism, and "credible" on Irish unity - whereas, she asserted, Sinn Féin didn't cut the mustard in any of these areas. She would have been heartened by the number of young faces in the audience of about 400 delegates.
She also got stuck into Sinn Féin when lashing the dissidents, who were "the direct legacy of Sinn Féin's failed war". She said there would be no pacts with Sinn Féin over marginal seats - not that there was much doubt considering her general thrust - and neither would there be mergers with any parties in the South. She reprimanded the British and Irish governments, implicitly saying they were complicit in undermining the SDLP-Ulster Unionist Party centre ground by pandering to the DUP and Sinn Féin.
Ritchie will be happy that she made her mark at the weekend, establishing her authority on the party and offering a plausible strategy for the future that distinguishes it from Sinn Féin. What wasn't clear was whether she had fully infused delegates with a sense of the make-or-break contest that lies ahead on May 5th.
Gerry Moriarty is Northern Editor of The Irish Times