ANALYSIS:Despite qualms about cuts, most TDs hope the Coalition staggers on – and the Opposition is keen to avoid getting its hands dirty, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE ENORMOUS scale of the budget adjustment for next year announced by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan again raises the question of whether the beleaguered Coalition can get the measure through the Dáil.
An adjustment of around €6 billion next year will require spending cuts and tax increases that will impact on almost everybody in society. No matter how hard Lenihan attempts to distribute the burden fairly there will inevitably be anomalies and hard cases that will test the loyalty of the all the TDs who back the Fianna Fáil-Green Party Coalition.
Considering that as recently as September the Government was still talking about a painful adjustment of €3 billion in 2011, the doubling of that figure will inevitably impose hardship on a great number of people.
The critical issue in getting a degree of public acceptance for the measure is that the adjustment is seen to be fair and that privileged groups who have escaped up to now are seen to suffer like everybody else. If that happens the budget will have a better chance of getting political acceptance in the Dáil.
Equally important for its survival is whether the Government can finally get a bit of good luck. Since Brian Cowen took over as Taoiseach everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong and even more besides. Within the past few days that run of bad luck continued with Jim McDaid’s shock decision to abandon the Dáil for Donegal followed closely by the High Court decision to compel the Government to hold the Donegal South West byelection.
The mood in Leinster House this week has been very odd. TDs, already spooked by recent events, are bracing themselves for the inevitably tough budget measures and also for the unknown and unexpected events that crop up at regular intervals.
Most Coalition TDs, and many on the Opposition side as well, are hoping that the Government can stagger on into the new year. The thinking on the Government side is dominated by the desire to put off the evil day of an election for as long as possible.
While Opposition leaders are busily demanding an election in public, the private hope of many Opposition TDs is that Fianna Fáil and the Greens will get the budget through the Dáil and then face the odium of the electorate for doing so early in the new year.
Given that a Fine Gael-Labour government would have no choice but to implement a similarly tough budget if they achieved power before Christmas, most Opposition TDs would ideally like to fight an election after the budget rather than before it.
However, with the survival of the Coalition now dependent on the continued support of two Independents, Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae, nobody can be sure what will happen next. Even if the Independents decide to stick it out and back the budget there is no guarantee that some of the Coalition’s own TDs might not find it a step too far.
Continued discipline on the Government benches depends on whether TDs believe the Coalition can last and the events of recent days have thrown that prospect into further doubt. Wavering TDs have to make a calculation about whether the balance of advantage lies in voting against the budget, in the hope of holding their seats in an early election, or buying a little more time in office.
Most Fianna Fáil TDs will have no hesitation sticking by party discipline and voting for the budget regardless of the consequences, but, given the increasingly precarious voting situation in the Dáil, it would only take a couple of desertions for it to be lost.
One of the reasons the budget was scheduled for December 7th was to frighten TDs with the prospect of a Christmas election if it were defeated. The insistence of the European Commission that the Government should publish a detailed four-year budgetary strategy this month threatened to undermine the tactic. It now appears, however, that the four-year plan is being pushed back into the later part of this month, possibly even after the Donegal byelection, to keep the threat of a Christmas election in play.
At this stage the apparent confluence of interest between Government and Opposition in allowing the budget through could ultimately win out. Added to this, the prospect of an Independent or a Government backbencher voting against the budget on a local issue appears to be receding. Given the enormous scale of the challenge facing the country, it could be counterproductive for any TD to vote against the budget for purely local interests.
That doesn’t rule out a move by one or more of the TDs who currently back the Coalition to vote against a budget measure such as cuts in pensions or social welfare entitlements. With an election at some stage over the next six months looking inevitable, the temptation to try and get on the side of the angels could prove irresistible, even if a Christmas election is the outcome.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor