McDowell's inexperience as a party leader has been a handicap in coping with the crisis, writes Stephen Collins
The air of political crisis around Leinster House deepened yesterday as the two Coalition parties became increasingly exasperated with each other in their struggle to respond to the continuing controversy over Bertie Ahern's finances. As the saga dragged on for another day the Progressive Democrats fuelled speculation about the future of the Coalition by taking a vow of silence, while Fianna Fáil Ministers began to talk openly about continuing on as a minority government.
The Tánaiste, Michael McDowell, refused to take the order of business in the Dáil as scheduled yesterday morning. Instead he insisted that the Taoiseach go into the House and respond to the latest disclosure that he had bought his home in Dublin from one of the people present when he was given stg£8,000 (€11,800) in Manchester in 1994.
McDowell was furious that having sat beside Ahern through the Dáil debate on Tuesday, and applauded the Taoiseach's mildly contrite account of the loans and gifts controversy, a new, embarrassing disclosure had emerged within 24 hours. The two men met before yesterday's Dáil session and the Tánaiste expressed his displeasure in forceful terms. He then walked off leaving it to Ahern to clear up the latest mess.
McDowell did not even accompany Ahern into the Dáil and the six PD deputies present looked distinctly uncomfortable as they clustered together on the edge of the Government benches. Their sense of unease deepened when the Taoiseach maintained that the former tánaiste, Mary Harney, who was in Offaly on official business, had been aware for some time that the Mahon tribunal was investigating the loans he had received from businessmen.
A PD spokesman quickly entered the fray to categorically deny that Harney was aware of the loans before they became the subject of public controversy. Later in the morning Harney gave an interview in Tullamore repeating that the Taoiseach was wrong to say she had been aware of the loans.
The PD parliamentary party then opted for silence, and rumours began to circulate about further trouble between the Coalition partners. McDowell's trenchant early-morning talk and the subsequent PD silence prompted an aggressive response from people close to the Taoiseach who suggested he was not prepared to put up with any further nit-picking from the smaller party about his personal finances. The strong line coming from Fianna Fáil sources was that while they expect a further drip-feed of stories about the Taoiseach's personal finances to emerge in the media over the coming days and weeks, they are no longer willing to see Ahern put in the firing line and forced to explain himself every time the media comes up with another revelation.
"The PDs have to decide whether they want to stay in or get out. If they stay in they have to accept that the Taoiseach is not going to be jerked around by the media any more," said one Fianna Fáil politician. He added that the party would have no problem continuing in office as Independent TDs were lining up to do a deal.
The dilemma facing the PDs is that if they leave government and go over to the Opposition benches at this stage in the life of the Dáil, they will struggle to make themselves relevant. On the other hand, if they stay in and negative revelations about the Taoiseach continue to emerge, their credibility as a party that stands for ethical standards will be fatally undermined. That would be a far more serious outcome for the PDs.
McDowell's real problem is not just that the Taoiseach created an embarrassment for the Government. It is that virtually all the Fianna Fáil Ministers have backed him forcefully. A gulf has opened up between the two parties and it was very evident yesterday in the hardening of attitudes on both sides.
Harney publicly acknowledged yesterday that it is difficult for a small party in government to cope in a climate like the existing one.
A senior Labour politician echoed her sentiments. "This reminds me of the atmosphere in our party in the summer and autumn of 1994, when we didn't know what to do because we had no idea what was going to happen next."
McDowell's inexperience as a party leader has been a handicap in the struggle to cope with the crisis over the past week. He initially gave the Taoiseach too much comfort, he then raised the stakes too high in response to Ahern's bumbling, and then backed down too quickly when the prospect of the Government collapsing suddenly loomed.
McDowell has had a genuinely good relationship with the Taoiseach since he joined the Government as attorney general in 1999. However, he has not had the hard experience of dealing with Ahern as one party leader to another. That is something that could only have come with time and that is precisely the commodity that is not available to either of them.
Getting to grips with what the Taoiseach is really saying is often a problem for his Coalition colleagues and the Opposition parties alike. The very reason the Opposition finds it hard to land a blow on the Taoiseach is the same one that regularly confuses his Coalition partners about what he is actually saying.
What, for instance was McDowell to make of this section of the Taoiseach's speech to the Dáil yesterday? "I didn't tell the present Tánaiste about Michael Wall and I didn't see what, I didn't see, he didn't want to know that either of who I bought my house from. In so far as it's painted a connection now that Michael Wall was somebody who was at the Manchester function. Well he wasn't at the Manchester function. Yes, yes but he was not a donor, he was not, and that's the fact."
It is impossible to know from that passage whether the Taoiseach was purposely trying to confuse the issue or simply got tied in a knot trying to explain how it was that he did not tell the Dáil two days earlier that Wall was at the Manchester event. Either way, McDowell was the one left looking foolish when it emerged that Ahern not only knows Wall well but actually bought his house from him.
It was probably a similarly confused version of his dealings with the tribunal that left the Taoiseach under the impression that he had told Harney about the loans problem while leaving her with no memory of ever having been informed of the matter.
It is too early to predict definitively what the PDs will do. It appears they have gone to ground in an effort to buy some time to see what, if anything, happens next. While they will be taunted for that by their opponents, only time will tell whether it was wise or silly to adopt that posture in the face of their current trials.