Can Bertie Ahern and David Trimble cut a deal? Ever since the start of the current phase of the Troubles, it has been part of the received political wisdom that peace would be secured when the leaders of Fianna Fail, the republican party in the Republic, and the Ulster Unionist Party, representing the majority in the North, hammered out a settlement.
For a long time this ancient political maxim has seemed threadbare. Jack Lynch might have wanted to deliver change but was imprisoned by the irredentists in his party. Charles Haughey undoubtedly had a vision of the way forward but, quite apart from the myriad political problems that engulfed him, carried too much historical baggage to be capable of winning the trust of unionists. Albert Reynolds delivered peace and was the quintessential pragmatist. But he was also the architect of the hated Framework Documents.
Can Mr Ahern succeed where his predecessors failed? At first sight he seems an unlikely man of destiny. He also got off to a bad start by appointing as the State's chief negotiator at the Stormont talks a man who was fighting for his political life. The Taoiseach's own involvement in the peace process seemed desultory; no visit to Stormont to match Tony Blair's appearance there, little visible contact with unionist leaders etc. But history is often a matter of good timing and Bertie's rendezvous with destiny may be at hand.
The political parties are due to convene at Stormont next week to review progress in the talks. Much to most people's surprise there's a distinct air of optimism. For weeks we've been listening to complaints about the lack of progress. Sinn Fein blamed the UUP for failing to "engage". Unionists accused the SDLP of being more concerned with keeping Mr Adams happy than with addressing the real issues at the heart of the problem. The smaller parties rolled their eyes to heaven and criticised the main players.
There were danger signs that the whole peace process could be beginning to unravel. Reports of splits within the IRA and tensions within the ranks of the loyalist paramilitaries have created fears that the ceasefires could break down. Only Mo Mowlam, gallant to a fault, has remained determinedly optimistic about the Stormont talks, pointing out that the fact that they are happening at all represents progress.
Now, in spite of all this, there is a definite sense that the whole process has shifted into a higher gear. There is still a mountain to climb. But, suddenly, the people who are on the defensive are those who have remained outside the talks: the DUP and the UKUP, dissident republicans.
A number of factors have helped to ease the atmosphere. The most important, yet rarely mentioned, is that each week that passes without a serious breakdown in either ceasefire helps build people's confidence in peace. This allows the politicians to edge cautiously forward, knowing that their respective communities desperately want them to ensure that there is no return to violence. The British government has shown it is serious about moving the process forward.
This has helped to give the talks a much needed credibility. But, at a political level, the most important development has been the series of meetings that have taken place between David Trimble and other senior unionists and the Taoiseach and David Andrews. It's common in such circumstances for both sides to say that any encounter was constructive and cordial. Usually, after a few days, the truth emerges about what happened.
In this case, according to others who were present, there seems to have been a meeting of minds which meant that each man emerged believing that the other not only wanted to cut a deal, but had thought seriously about what this would involve.
Both sides deserve credit for this. David Trimble took a serious gamble when he led his party into talks. It's true that consultations with the broad unionist community showed that a majority wanted to see their political leaders argue their case inside the Stormont building, rather than roar and rant outside. But the UUP leader came under pressure from the Rev Ian Paisley and Bob McCartney.
Many within his own party were aghast at the idea of sitting down with Gerry Adams. There was, and is, deep unease about the thrust of the peace process. It didn't help that the British government seemed intent on making concessions to Sinn Fein. Against this background, Trimble demonstrated considerable courage in sticking with the talks. He got his reward at his party's conference last month when he was greeted with a standing ovation.
In recent weeks there has been a sense that the Government has, once again, become seriously engaged in the talks process. Perhaps it is unfair, but there did appear to be a hiatus before the arrival of David Andrews at Iveagh House. Now, after a slightly shaky start, his courtesy and his commitment to the task in hand have impressed unionists. On the other hand, his honourable record on human rights issues and determination to press the British on the problems relating to prisoners and so on means that nationalists trust him.
If these talks make progress - and nobody is underestimating the difficulties that lie ahead - then a key moment may turn out to have been last week's meeting between Mr Ahern and Mr Trimble. Both men appear to have listened intently to what the other had to say, and to have been impressed by it. The UUP leader came away more confident that the Taoiseach accepted the need for constitutional change.
Mr Trimble was pleased that Mr Ahern listened to his arguments for stronger links between both parts of this island with new political assemblies in Scotland and Wales. The two men talked about John Hume's concept of "equality of allegiance" to meet the needs of nationalists in the North, a need which Mr Trimble had already recognised in his speech to his party's conference.
But as well as these and other issues that will have to be hammered out in the weeks and months ahead, there is also the matter of style. Mr Ahern is not perceived as threatening. Unionists see him as an experienced negotiator who wants to strike a deal that will stick, and they like this.
Of course, the Taoiseach wants peace in Northern Ireland to bring the long years of suffering to an end, but he also wants a workable settlement which will increase the capacity of the island as a whole to attract investment and tourism. "In a way it's quite a relief that he doesn't seem to care too much about it," a unionist friend said to me. "We've had too much of people caring in the past. That's been part of the problem. What we need now is a realist who sees what is practically possible, and Bertie just might be the man for the job."