While the potential future role of Sinn Fein in the political system of this State is frequently referred to in the media, the issues do not seem to have been addressed in any depth.
There is, of course, a general belief that in the aftermath of recent events in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein might win several more Dail seats in the next general election, and there is some expectation that the party would be more likely to support a Fianna Fail government than one led by Fine Gael and Labour. But there is also unease among a significant section of the electorate at the possibility that any government here might find itself dependent on Sinn Fein support.
At 2.5 per cent, Sinn Fein's share of the vote in the last election was just below that of the Green Party, but was somewhat differently distributed. Leaving aside the five-seat constituency of Cavan-Monaghan, where Caoimhghin O Caolain won a seat with almost 20 per cent of the vote, and three-seat Kerry North, where Martin Ferris failed to win one with 16 per cent of the votes, there were five other constituencies, most of them four-seaters, where the Sinn Fein vote ranged between 7 per cent and 9 per cent.
Now, in four-seat constituencies some individual candidates securing only 7 per cent to 10 per cent of the first preference votes have been elected. Examples in 1997 were Derek McDowell for Labour in Dublin North-Central and Proinsias De Rossa in Dublin North-West. But those results were achieved with the aid of massive preference transfers that Sinn Fein candidates may not be as well placed to secure.
On the other hand, the Sinn Fein vote in the State has clearly risen since 1997, as the peace process has progressed in Northern Ireland, bringing two members of the party into government there. In the last Irish Times/MRBI poll it was credited with 4 percent of the vote, as against the 2.5 per cent of the last general election.
Thus it is at least possible that Sinn Fein could win seats in one or more of these four-seat constituencies, and another possibility is Donegal North-East, a three-seater where in order for this to happen, a very large swing from Fianna Fail or Harry Blaney would be needed.
Finally, Martin Ferris's 16 per cent vote in Kerry North, where Denis Foley is the sitting Fianna Fail TD, offers Sinn Fein another possibility of a gain, although it is hard to see Fianna Fail failing to elect any candidate there, and Fine Gael's Jimmy Deenihan and Labour's Dick Spring would both be very difficult to shift. The truth is that like the Green Party, Sinn Fein's electoral performance, even with a significant rise in its vote, remains a matter of luck as much as anything else. After all, the PDs, with 4.7 per cent of the vote in 1992 secured 10 seats - but only four seats in 1997 with precisely the same vote. It is impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy the seats won by parties with small shares of the vote.
The fact remains that, as in the case of the Greens, it is certainly possible Sinn Fein might win some extra seats in the next election - and it is likely that up to 10 to 12 Independents will also be elected. In those circumstances one cannot exclude the possibility that Sinn Fein could hold the balance of power in the Dail.
That does not mean that Sinn Fein would necessarily be in government. They could support a government from outside its ranks, although one cannot rule out the possibility that in pursuance of a policy of securing a presence in government on both sides of the Border, they might refuse such support unless given a Cabinet seat. As things stand there is no sign that such a demand would automatically be rejected by Fianna Fail - if this were to be the price of scrambling back into office after all their recent travails.
How serious would such an outcome be for our State? Despite the recent Austrian example it is unlikely that such a coalition would be externally challenged. The kind of sensitivities that evoked that initiative arose from specific past experiences on the Continent, and it seems very unlikely that a Provisional Sinn Fein Cabinet member in Ireland would produce any comparable reaction there. ein were to be involved in an Irish a coalition that might arise after the next election, this would be strictly a matter for the Irish political system to decide for itself.
How worrying or unacceptable domestically would such a development be? Clearly many people might take the view that if we accept - indeed welcome - the presence of Sinn Fein in the Northern Executive in advance of comprehensive decommissioning, we should not object to their participation in a government here in similar circumstances. But there is certainly room for a contrary view.
First of all, ours is a sovereign government, responsible for the security of our State, through the Army and Garda Siochana - not a regional government. Quite different considerations must apply here. And, second, there can be no doubt that Sinn Fein's presence in an Irish government at this stage would affect both the capacity of such a government to pursue the kind of policy of constructive engagement with the Northern Ireland issue that has been characteristic of our governments in recent times.
Of course all Irish governments have been concerned in particular with the problems of the Northern nationalist minority. But it has been the capacity of recent Irish governments to empathise also with the problems of Northern unionists, and to establish a measure of trust and confidence, at least with the UUP and Alliance parties that has made it possible for agreement to be reached on the emergence of an inclusive government in the North.
To see what problems we could create for the Northern Ireland political process if at this point Sinn Fein were to be included in an Irish government, we have only to think of just how impossibly difficult the recent resolution of the Northern conflict would have been if, for example, Bertie Ahern had not been able to establish trust and confidence with David Trimble at key points in the process. That would have been impossible if Sinn Fein had at the time been participating in his Government. Thus for the sake of Northern Ireland, it is still too soon for this to happen.
For these reasons many people who, like myself, have, despite our bitter hostility to the IRA's appalling campaign of violence, from the outset supported the peace process as the only way to end that violence, would find the entry of Sinn Fein into an Irish government at this point unwelcome. Not just because their armed wing still controls arms and enforces its will on the minority community in Northern Ireland by unacceptable acts of violence - but also for the sake of the Northern Ireland peace process itself.
In the next election this will be a factor in the choices made by many voters, not merely in placing Sinn Fein candidates low down on their ballot papers but also in choosing what party to put at the top.
Unless of course Fianna Fail were to make it clear that it will not accept Sinn Fein support to form a Government after the next election.
gfitzgerald@irish-times.ie