POLAND'S FUTURE

Poland's role in democratic change in eastern Europe was overshadowed by the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November, 1989, as…

Poland's role in democratic change in eastern Europe was overshadowed by the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November, 1989, as a symbol of the end of communism. Six months before, however, the roundtable agreements between Solidarity, the Polish government and the Catholic Church ushered in a transitional period of political change that resulted in the appointment of the first non communist prime minister in eastern Europe since the second World War, Mr Tadeusz Mazowiecki. His power sharing government was the first to begin the systematic reforms that are still working their way through the economies and societies of the former Soviet empire.

Those changes have been unequal and in some of the new democracies they have been hesitant and stumbling. During his recent visit to Warsaw, the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, paid tribute to the advances made by Poland's economy, which has provided new opportunities for Irish exporters, investors and consultants. But the fact that a substantial trade balance has opened up in Ireland's favour, while Polish exports have lagged behind, illustrates the difficulties sometimes encountered by the emerging economies in eastern Europe. The trade deficit with Ireland of $100 million last year reflects the state of trade with the European Union as a whole.

in part this is due to the asymmetry of the association agreement between Poland and the EU and what Warsaw regards as discriminatory practices in some trade areas. Much of the dynamism which has transformed the Polish economy in the last two or three years can be ascribed to the powerful incentive of convergence with EU standards and the expectation of eventual EU membership. Joining western Europe has a peculiar logic for Poland's sense of the direction of history, and especially for its commitment since 1989 to democracy and market reforms.

In parallel with economic change, politics is also evolving from polarity between post communists and the various parties which emerged from Solidarity to a less hide bound preoccupation with the recent past. The ideological clash was already less obvious last November when President Lech Walesa was defeated by the post communist candidate, Mr Aleksander Kwasniewski. Mr Walesa played on fears of a return to old alignments and a pro Russian bias if Mr Kwasniewski was elected. But his opponent spoke of pragmatism and continuity of market reforms and pro western policies.

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Mr Kwasniewski's visit to Moscow in April, during which he reaffirmed Poland's strong desire to join Nato, and the country's continued progress towards membership of the EU, have strengthened the perception of a well rooted and stable democracy capable of dealing with the momentum of change. Some weeks ago the new President had a formal meeting with the Polish primate, Cardinal Glemp, which may mark the next step in political evolution. While Mr Kwasniewski obviously has clear eyed electoral reasons for wanting to create a bridge to Catholic voters, that in itself will not be bad if it helps to break down old political patterns and provides the impulse to develop new ones.