"We feel very unsafe in terms of energy supply in Europe," according to Poland's economy minister Piotr Wozniak. This week his government confirmed the feeling when it vetoed the opening of EU talks with Russia on energy, trade, investment, human rights and industrial standards. Warsaw wants Moscow first to confirm a previous agreement opening its gas and oil network to international investment and to lift a ban on Polish food exports imposed last year. It does not trust Germany to reach an agreement favouring Poland during its EU presidency next year.
Poland was shocked when Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine last January following a dispute over pricing. This was seen as crude political pressure following Ukraine's efforts to move closer to the west. Events since have confirmed the importance of Russia's energy supplies in its relations with the rest of Europe. The EU now gets 44 per cent of its gas and 30 per cent of its oil from there. Germany's decision to build a direct pipeline from Russia which does not cross Poland typifies these fears, since it reduces the possibility of multilateral bargaining and leverage.
Poland's relations with Germany have reached a new low under President Lech Kaczynski and his twin brother, prime minister Jaroslav Kaczynski who leads an unstable coalition of nationalists with left and right-wing populists. Demands that the German government abjure private claims to restore property seized from Germans who fled Poland after the war have been refused. Undertakings that Germany would respond strongly against energy blackmail of Poland by the Russians cut little ice. The Polish government sees little prospect that the EU will counteract President Putin's flat refusal to sign an agreement opening up its energy markets by insisting on a more comprehensive deal, so it has opted to use its veto instead. If the Russian embargo on its food is lifted this could change, but the feeling runs deep.
This decision is in keeping with other recent manifestations of Poland's sovereignty. The government has decided to hold a referendum on whether to join the euro when that comes up for decision, amid signs of a rethink about whether it would be desirable. The Polish economy is showing signs of recovery as unemployment comes down and labour shortages grow in the construction and high technology sectors. Further investment and a return home of Polish workers who have migrated abroad for work are likely to be inhibited if political uncertainty remains. This week's local elections show it is continuing and is unresolved.